i am unsure if this will succeed in uk market: gasoline price is high ($7.113/gallon) but electricity price is high as well ($0.481/kwh). if yaris cross hybrid in uk gets 50 mpg, then I don’t think there is a lot of gas savings here. and it will probably cost £7K more to begin with. will be difficult to sell. we will see.

source:

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/#hl228

USA market: on average: does not have big price discrepancy between gasoline and electricity like in China or Europe. So less “gas savings”. Certainly, there are some locations or if a person drives 20k miles a year, then there is more of this gas savings. Then you add increase cost of insurance, cost of registration, cost of tires: sometimes EV are more expensive than hybrids, especially for those that don’t qualify for the $7500 credit. There are a lot of people that don’t qualify for this. Why would they buy a Niro EV over a corolla cross hybrid? Until someone can make an EV that can do what something like a corolla cross hybrid can do for the same cost, EV will have some difficult time to grow.

Just curious what do you think is the percentage of cars are EV where you live ? Very unsual price discrepancy between gas and electricity. Will get real “gas savings”.

for you: can’t charge at home: probably not saving money. supercharging is just too expensive at $0.50/kwh. I don’t think it is cheaper than gas when the comparison is against a hybrid. let’s compare accord hybrid vs. model 3. accord hybrid gets 48 mpg combined: so lets say it is 12K miles per year: at $6/gallon (I know I am using high end of $6–currently, average is $4.908/gallon in California): accord hybrid will cost $1500. model 3 at 4 miles/kwh and $0.50/kwh will also cost $1500. so there is no gas savings here. insurance cost on average is higher. extra registration cost. tires will cost more (they wear out faster on average). and yes “opportunity cost”: when I use this opportunity cost: I just use low risk investment such as money market or CD. rates currently at about 5%. You are better off buying a hybrid. ie. corolla cross hybrid instead of a kia niro EV, a rav-4 hybrid instead of model y, an accord hybrid instead of model 3, highlander/grand highlander hybrid instead of model x/r1s/ex90, etc. Again, insurance can be costly for EV; but sometimes could be same price or cheaper. check insurance rate for the hybrids and compare them. Personally, if I can’t charge at home, I wouldn’t buy an EV: it just seems too much work.

Source:

https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-having-electric-car-affects-your-auto-insurance-rates

https://www.newsweek.com/more-range-more-tires-electric-vehicle-tire-myths-truths-1796810

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

from usa perspective: model 3 if qualify for $7500 tax credit (and recent discount on some inventory) is fairly inexpensive. in the usa: the biggest seller of sedans are toyota and honda: corolla, civic, camry, and accord: they are top selling sedans. both toyota and honda are moving slow in terms of EV development. part of it is because they don’t think they got cost down enough. And I think they are correct. Currently, in the USA despite of having the IRA $7500 tax credit: Tesla and others are having trouble fending off the hybrids. People are still buying hybrids in large number. In 2022: BEV did passed hybrids for market share of sales. then in Q2 2023: hybrids beat BEV. Imagine without the tax credit? Tesla will continue to dominate the USA market in terms of BEV. It will take years for other company to manufacture their cars in the USA as to qualify for the tax credit. We will continue to see the surge of hybrid sedans for the time being. Toyota just announced the 2025 camry: it will be all hybrid.

source:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

https://www.caranddriver.com/toyota/camry

In the USA there is growth in EV; but the growth rate has slowed down. One of the impediment for EV growth is insurance. Insuring EV tend to be more expensive. A friend of mine bought a Rav-4 hybrid over the model Y for this very reason. It is not just in the USA; but it could be more expensive in UK as well. With higher insurance cost, higher up front cost, higher tire cost (due to it wearing out faster), additional registration cost, and high supercharging cost: it sometimes isn’t a good value proposition for some people. the higher insurance cost and higher tire cost will wipe almost all the “gas savings” and “maintenance” savings. Saying that: Tesla recently has put some discounts on some of their inventory and they could be quite inexpensive (if the buyer qualified for the $7500 tax credit)

Source:

https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-having-electric-car-affects-your-auto-insurance-rates

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/361588/why-electric-car-insurance-so-expensive-ev-vs-ice-cost-analysis

https://www.newsweek.com/more-range-more-tires-electric-vehicle-tire-myths-truths-1796810

i am not surprised. everyone talks about competition from other EV; but the real competition are the hybrids from Toyota and Honda, especially in parts of the USA where gasoline is not expensive. Even with tax credits: it is not easy to fend off the hybrids. and without tax credit: it will be a lot more challenging.

One way to determine if is is age or Tesla model 3 or both: get a quote on a new Honda accord hybrid.

Making EV trucks is expensive. The market for these is limited. Rivian has sold some R1T but not 50K R1T in 1 year: I am unsure when they will be able to sell that many. It will be some time until batteries price are cheap in the USA. This is why EV sales in the USA still require some sort of tax credit. Even with the tax credit: it can still be expensive, especially in a high interest rate environment. EV market in the USA now is basically compact suv, midsize sedans, small hatchback (ie. model y, model 3, bolt). Gasoline price relative to electricity price in the USA (on average) is still relatively cheap: there will be continued fierce competition from hybrids for the time being.

Market is very limited for > $80k vehicles, then add competition from model x, R1S, and EX90. Could be a zero sum game. Then add competitors from 3 row suv such as grand highlander hybrid, it will make it difficult to sell this Gravity in high numbers.

On financial standpoint: model x will never beat grand highlander. You forgot to calculate “opportunity cost” . $14k upfront cost: if put in money market account or CD at 5% return compounded in 10 years will yield roughly $8k. Disclaimer: Not financial advisor

we will get there but it may be a slow process. USA market is quite different than other market: main reason: gasoline price is relatively inexpensive. California is very conducive to EV: high gasoline price and good weather. These high gasoline prices: prior to EV being available: made a lot of people NOT buy big 3 row suv and large trucks: people are use to driving compact suv, sedans, hybrids, etc. when I go to the bay area (even before the EV age): i didn’t see much vehicles like F150,Tahoe, etc… California (and any place with really high gas prices): the EV adoption will naturally be higher: the “gas savings” will probably make it worthwhile (although some places in california electricity is really expensive and there isn’t much “gas savings”). for the parts of the USA where gas is cheap: the “gas savings” isn’t much. people love to drive trucks, 3-row suv. currently, these EV equivalent vehicles are really expensive. For compact suv and sedan: the cost of ownership of an EV isn’t that much cheaper (sometimes more expensive) when compared to ice/hybrid. the IRA tax credit is a huge boost for ev sales; but without it: I don’t think EV sales will be that great because EV are still expensive in terms of upfront cost, insurance cost (this is YMMV: sometimes it is cheaper–I am just saying on avearge), and tires. Not everyone qualify for the EV tax credit. tesla dominates the market in the USA in terms of EV; but not everyone wants to buy a tesla for whatever reason. the non-tesla offerings isn’t like what it is in China. there isn’t as many variety. outside of china: manufacturer has a difficult time making an EV that is <$30K that can go 300 miles EPA and charge at 150 kw consistently. Whereas a corolla cross hybrid starts at < $30K. the cost of owning a corolla cross hybrid isn’t higher than a niro ev.

source:

https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-having-electric-car-affects-your-auto-insurance-rates

https://www.newsweek.com/more-range-more-tires-electric-vehicle-tire-myths-truths-1796810

this is underrated comment. A lot of times I read something like bmw, Kia, non-Toyota has engine failure at 70kmiles . When comparing reliability to ICE/hybrid: Toyota should be the benchmark. Time will tell; but I think a Toyota Corolla, Hilux, etc… will outlast most EV .

2017 prius prime: 68k miles. oil change x 6 (once a year), cabin air filter x 4 (DIY), Engine air filter x 2 (DIY). purchased new set of tires at 30K miles: still on this set.