Fuck polls. Go vote!
Yes, please.
Fuck votes, go poll! Actually, strike that, reverse it.
bop it, twist it
buy it use it break it fix it
Pasted my comment from elsewhere here to support the argument.
The way in which most polls are conducted is often biased towards older voters as they’re often phone calls. How many young people are answering phonecalls from unknown numbers? Also the sources pollsters get their numbers from are also often biased as well.
Here’s a report from Pew Research who make their money from polls, so this is the rosiest of takes on it https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/21/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work/
Here’s a take from the Times and what they’re trying to do about it. I’ve pasted the archive.is link https://archive.is/sQ5Vi
And here’s a report from journalists that doesn’t profit from polling https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
LOL if a brand new candidate starts beating you within like 2 days, you might be a loser
The biggest loser. Nobody loses like Donald Trump.
Many people are saying it.
The best people. With the best words.
tremendous words like you’ve never heard before
It shouldn’t be too surprising to see due to the sudden hype and attention around the new candidate. She does seem to be picking up young voters, however.
just wait until taylor swift endorses her…
I saw some footage that shows she leans left politically and has wanted to speak out, but I’m sure every advisor she has would tell her it’s a bad idea. That would put Taylor in the crosshairs of the Trump hate machine and would definitely cost her money and possibly put her fans at risk. If she has the temerity to endorse Harris despite all that, I would respect the hell out of that.
What “footage”?
She endorsed Biden in 2020, so I doubt she cares about any fans being lost. She probably just cares less than we do, and is waiting to do it later. Like Obama.
She literally made a song about how Trump is a whiny bitch. She’s pretty openly left-leaning.
Which song?
You Need to Calm Down
Could be. It was some kind of behind the scenes footage with her dad or parents. I wish I could remember more context.
It was something to do with how she was recording music during Covid.
lol dude they’re already after her. Also, do not underestimate swifties. They are a DEDICATED fan base.
And way too old. He should step down.
Everyone is saying it
Very smart people
Many such cases
Let’s not live in a bubble. Most polls still show trump winning.
no polls from here on out should change what should be everyone’s plan to get everyone out to vote
i’ll be plastering the joint with voter reg forms and volunteering at the precinct on election day
On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
No, they just need to be about 1% ahead in each of the the seven or eight swing states.
Which translates to about 3-5 points ahead in a national poll.
That seems like a dangerous inference to make…
Typically that’s how it works out. It’s not like it’s a hard and fast rule… but it’s generally pretty close.
It’s a historical inference being made for the limited purpose of translating the OP story’s poll to a relevant electoral outcome.
I don’t think percent works like that.
They do when you take into account that democrats traditionally vastly over perform in their stronghold states like NY and CA in a way that’s inefficient for the electoral college. It’s why democrats usually win the popular vote even if they lose the election.
I think this number is a little high, but I really want to see a blowout so this is a great goal. The number I heard was about 3%.
Maybe Harris will spank him so hard in the debate that a bunch of republicans will stay home instead of voting at all
I would be shocked if Trump does another debate.
It’s not a sprint.
Vote.
According to the latest data from Reuters/Ipsos, Harris is leading Trump in support, 44% to 42%, which falls within the survey’s three point margin of error, the latest suggestion the race between the vice president and former president will be close.
Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.
And with things being basically even, remember that fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting and most of our votes don’t matter only a handful of states do.
Practically nobody who was going to vote for Biden will now not vote. In contrast, MANY people who were going to choose not to vote because their options were Biden or Trump will now make an effort to vote, because one of their options just became a much younger and more hope-inspiring option
Yep, Biden supporter here. I like Biden, but Harris is an excellent choice as well and she fully has my support. I can’t imagine anyone who supported Biden not supporting Harris.
Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.
Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the “undecided” bracket and away from third-party candidates. This is a big swing from the Biden low watermark of 37% last month.
fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting
Historically, fascists tend to win elections by launching paramilitary campaigns of harassment, hyper-policing, and mass disenfranchisement during election seasons. Mass disenfranchisement has played a big roll in flipping states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida red. Most famously, the Brooks Brothers Riot was critical in shutting down the recount process during the 2000 Florida election that elevated Bush to the presidency.
I would be less worried about Republicans simply turning out in droves than I am of Dem districts subjected to domestic terrorism and red state interference and intimidation of local poll workers.
Yeah as an Ohioan it’s remarkable how many otherwise liberal people just are meh about voting. People who would be democrats if they cared
Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the “undecided” bracket and away from third-party candidates.
This is going to be the real question. Can Harris pull in black men? They trend more conservative overall. Can she pull in gen Z people that are voting age? If she can get her performance up with those two groups, in PA, MI, and AZ, then she’ll likely win.
BTW - note that you talk about Biden as Biden, rather than Joe, but you refer to Harris as Kamela. This is a consistent problem with and for female politicians. Clinton get referred to as Hillary (when it is contextually clear that it’s not referring to Bill). Just something to think about.
This is going to be the real question. Can Harris pull in black men?
That’s not a real question. Dems regularly pull 70-90% of black male voters.
It is in fact a real question, because Trump has made significant inroads into that demographic. Given how tight the margins are, Dems need to be pulling in all of the black, male voters.
Anecdotally, I’ve known a handful of black men in my area that support Trump. All of them also smoke a ton of weed, so there’s a lot of cognitive dissonance there.
Trump has made significant inroads into that demographic.
From approximately 0% during the Obama presidency to the low 20s against Hillary.
But right in line with what Republicans have normally received going back to the 70s.
All of them also smoke a ton of weed, so there’s a lot of cognitive dissonance there.
No, that tracks.
Bill Clinton said Republicans want to fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love. This is looking very promising.
He was talking about congressional staffers though.
Harris 2024. Fuck the republican traitor filth.
This is heartening, but we’ll know better when swing state polls are out. We won’t know for sure until the election is over, unfortunately.
It went from a very probable Biden loss to a Let’s do This Harris!
I have to say, it’s been really encouraging and refreshing to see people getting kinda pumped up about the election for a change.
Generally it’s just been brutal, unceasing, useless pessimism and defeatism for the last year, absolutely everywhere. So it’s nice to see.
*for the last 8 years. I agree though. Maybe it’s naive but I’m feeling a little optimistic
I meant here specifically. But yeah I guess.
It definitely changes the game for Democrats, though it’s too early to tell how it plays out. I was really turned off to the idea of a Harris run, but her not being an old white guy might be her biggest asset. Her not being particularly charismatic might also endear her more to people, in a weird way it might make her seem more authentic, but it’s way too early to tell.
That’s the point. It’s not real math, its propaganda
Polls are meaningless
I vividly remember Clinton leading in polls too. The polls are rigged, Don’t worry about them just a vote.
The polls aren’t “rigged”. Jesus. This is such a dumb narrative.
You know that when something is a 90% probability, that means that 10% of the time it’s not going to happen, right? The last, best poll gave Trump a 29% chance of winning, and he did win, because he outperformed in key swing states, even though he lost the popular vote by a wide margin. Then he lost both the popular vote in 2020–by a wide margin–and the key swing states.
The way in which most polls are conducted is often biased towards older voters as they’re often phone calls. How many young people are answering phonecalls from unknown numbers? Also the sources pollsters get their numbers from are also often biased as well.
Here’s a report from Pew Research who make their money from polls, so this is the rosiest of takes on it https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/21/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work/
Here’s a take from the Times and what they’re trying to do about it. I’ve pasted the archive.is link https://archive.is/sQ5Vi
And here’s a report from journalists that doesn’t profit from polling https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
The way in which most polls are conducted is often biased towards older voters as they’re often phone calls.
People that follow this have discussed this at length. There are a number of polls that are done on-line (YouGov being one of the ones I know of off the top of my head), and those tend to be biased as well. The people conducting the polls understand the biases inherent in their polling, and reputable polling companies will do their best to correct for biases. Metapolling will aggregate and weight polls so that they can get a better understanding of how people both feel, and how they’re likely to act.
Again: this isn’t a “rigged” system. “Rigging” a system would be setting it up intentionally to function–or fail–in a specific way. Inherent biases that you’re trying to remove to the best of your ability isn’t “rigging” a poll.
And here’s a report from journalists that doesn’t profit from polling
Nate Cohn was, I believe, a pollster before he became a journalist. He’s a frequent contributor to fivethirtyeight (I think I was listening to him just a few minutes ago talking about Trump’s speech at the RNC). Him saying that they don’t know how issues polling connects to actual behavior–versus ““horse race” polling”–doesn’t say that the polls themselves are the problem. Rather, the problem is connecting those polls on issues with how people will actually vote. (I’ll have to find the rest of that newsletter, since it cuts off just as he’s getting really interesting.)
Fundamentally, you’re asking about issues polling, rather than which candidate a given person is likely
I said nothing about a rigged system. Just that polls have an inherent bias.
My apologies, I wasn’t paying attention to user names, and I assumed you were the person that made the top level comment about polls being rigged. That’s entirely my fault.
It’s a contentious topic, I understand.
Rigged or not, I think “Don’t worry about them just vote.” is excellent advice.
I like the sentiment if not the wording here. The only poll that matters is the one conducted on 5 November. All others are just tools the campaigns use to motivate voters and direct campaigners. If you want your guy or gal to win, you need to act as if you’re 2 points down in the polls and vote accordingly.
Well said.
It’s also worth remembering that literally any poll conducted is only displaying data based on people who voluntarily respond to polls.
Even when Biden was still running, the results were always going to be flawed based on the simple fact that far more Trump voters are the sort of rabid, loud people with nothing better to do than to let someone know what they think about politics, vs Biden voters who were motivated in large part by nothing more significant than “I just don’t want trump”.
The first person is going to be happy to spend 15 minutes on the phone with anyone willing to listen to their political thoughts. The second person is hanging up.
Can we agree on these bullet-points? If so I’ll adjust and use going forward.
- Individual polls from reputable pollsters can be a barometer for a snapshot in time, but they may also be outliers.
- An aggregation of many reputable polls during the same period of time is a more accurate snapshot in time.
- Long-term trends can be very useful and give more extrapolative trajectories (e.g., the long-term downward decline of Biden’s aggregate national approval ratings and his steady decline in swing-states leading to a change in strategy and his stepping down).
- Still, such polls may not accurately represent fringe groups (though many pollsters compensate in a variety of ways).
- We shouldn’t just blindly follow the polls (blind-leading-the-blind mentality)—e.g., if the case is never made for something, then it never gets popular. Bernie Sanders heavily advocated for Universal Healthcare and we of course have seen an adjustment in polling instead of simply reacting to its initial unpopularity—but we also shouldn’t ignore trends.
- Polls don’t dictate what people do in the moment, or say or do later; instead, they’re a reflection of where they are at in the moment.
- Every advocate should have the mindset of trying to change polls to their advantage; this by active campaigning (canvassing, phone-banking, fundraising, etc.), change of messaging, etc.
- Context should always be considered when discussing polling. (e.g., in isolation, Biden’s debate could be considered, “just one bad night, and we can swing polls back,” without considering the long-term concern that was already present over his immutable vice — age/cognitive-decline.)
- No matter what the polls say, winning, tying, or losing… Always and I mean always Register and VOTE. Not just this, but drag 3-5 other people to register and vote with you.
Yeah. This can be quibbled with, but it puts the most important thing at the bottom: Polls are meaningless unless you GOTV.
Well she was first in the polls and in the popular vote wasn’t she?
They’re registering Democrat and polling Democrat, so there are nice, cushy feelings when it comes time to vote. We don’t need to vote; she’s got this in the bag. They’re getting on the lists to be called, I wouldn’t be shocked if the polling organizations here infiltrated.
Clinton’s polls looked fine until Trump won by a significant margin. That was no happenstance. Maybe she’s polling well, maybe it’s Maybelline, doesn’t matter one bit. Expect there’s foul play and make sure as hell you vote.
Clinton’s polls looked fine until Comrade Comey gave us all his buttery November surprise, and then the polls tightened significantly over the span of a week.
Funny thing is, if Harris gets elected, the Simpsons prophecy of the first female president succeeding Trump will (kinda) come true.
Kinda come true is how prophecies usually do.
And kinda means it doesn’t come true.
Harris is going to win. Everyone has been wondering what she’s been doing as VP this entire time. She’s been preparing to step up, win this election, and be an effective President.
Before Biden exited from the race, a Jul 2 poll by Reuters/Ipsos had Harris losing to Trump by 1 point. At that time, the only Democrat polled who beat Trump was Michelle Obama, who had an 11 point advantage over the former president.
Yes. But at the same time, Project 2025, and Trump’s Cheetoh-stained fingerprints all over it, are finally starting to get some popular attention, and that’s not a popular idea.
Encouraging momentum that hopefully has given Dems the jolt they needed, but alot can happen between now and November.
(phew) I’m glad I don’t have to go vote in November then. Thanks everyone else.
Yep! Thankfully, Clinton won in 2016 and no Democrats actually had to vote. ;-)
She should have notified the public she needed votes with a catchy phrase.
Something like “Pokémon go to the polls”
That would have convinced everyone to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Yeah it’s great that it was her on the ballot, that Sanders guy never stood a chance at beating Trump. Could you imagine him as president? Talk about nonsense.
Fuck national polls, show me swing states or fuck off
SSoGTFO.
Good to see for Kamala.
