Well, it’s already been delayed.
Well, it’s already been delayed.
American support is essential to the Israeli state, in response to aggression from Iran and other sources which is why we continue to provide it, it’s NOT essential to the genocide, which Israel is fully capable and willing to commit with their own resources.
Seems like bullshit to me, but then I was brought up on the phonics system in the 70s. No clue what they’re teaching now.
Reality is probably a mix of phonics, predicting, and context.
For example, this bit:
https://www.sciencealert.com/word-jumble-meme-first-last-letters-cambridge-typoglycaemia
The comment I’m responding to is attempting to change the subject.
The winner of the Presidential race will be either Harris or Trump. There is no other viable choice.
No, they can’t, because they aren’t engaging in the genocide and Israel doesn’t need our help to commit it.
You’d be wrong, but I did vote against 118.
I like the bus analogy. You aren’t getting door to door service. You take the bus that gets you closest to your destination and put in the work to walk the rest of the way.
The Democratic bus gets you within a mile.
The Republican bus travels through the Twilight Zone and strands you in a post apocalyptic wasteland.
There are only two choices WHO CAN WIN.
Stein can’t win, the Greens don’t have the power and have NEVER had the power. Their best shot was Nader with name recognition and he couldn’t crack 3%.
Without Nader the very best they have done was 1.07% in 2016. Other than that? Sub 1% over, and over.
The Libertarian candidate could have pulled it out if disaffected Republicans had become Libertarians instead of Independents. Pro-Tip - they have not.
Kennedy’s out.
The idiot socialist isn’t even on the ballot in enough states to win.
West is on the ballot in fewer states than that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballot_access_in_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
I agree, I’d love for our system to have multiple VIABLE parties, but we don’t. Your choice is the Democratic or Republican candidate, full stop.
If you want to change that, you aren’t going to do it by voting for fringe candidates who will get 1% of the vote or less.
The correct way to change it is to pass ranked choice balloting. If you have a chance to support that (we did, on our ballot!) then go for it!
If you want to end the war in Gaza, vote Harris.
If you want to accelerate it until everyone is dead and the war ends faster, vote Trump, 3rd party, or abstain.
It’s really that simple.
They will move the goalposts to whatever the issue of the day is. “Buh, buh… Gaza!”
“When I look at myself in the first grade and I look at myself now, I’m basically the same. The temperament is not that different.”
https://theweek.com/speedreads/575962/donald-trump-tells-biographer-hes-same-now-first-grade
Sitting here going “9 is pretty fucking metal, there are 8 more??!?!!!”
I’d add the guitar duel from Crossroads.
Who’s gonna win? Guitar rocker who sold his soul to the devil or Juilliard trained white wanna-be blues boy?
The point is, the winner of our elections will be either the Democrat or the Republican. There is no viable 3rd choice.
So, you hold your nose and vote for whoever is closest to your view who will actually get elected to prevent the person farthest from your view from taking office.
And don’t give me that bullshit about “well, neither one is close to my view” because if Gore won in 2000 we wouldn’t have been attacked on 9/11 and burned trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and if Clinton had won in 2016, we wouldn’t have a packed right wing Supreme Court and lost Roe.
Both sides are NOT the same, one is CLEARLY better than the other for you and everyone else.
Right wing social policy and left wing economic policy would be nuts though.
“Fuck the rich! Tax them to hell, spend the money on… um… the military budget!”
No social media linking, and, yeah, reddit is social media.
Let me frame it this way then… in my lifetime, more electoral college votes have been awarded ACCIDENTALLY than have been won by a third party. That’s an absolute fact:
https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2016/12/enduring-mystery-america-s-last-faithless-elector/
The best shot a 3rd party had was with Ross Perot in 1992, how did that work out?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election
Clinton - 44,909,889 - 43.0% - 370 EC
Bush - 39,104,550 - 37.4% - 168
Perot - 19,743,821 - 18.9% - 0
No other 3rd party run has even been close.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election
Clinton - 47,401,185 - 49.2% - 379
Dole - 39,197,469 - 40.7% - 159
Perot - 8,085,294 - 8.4% - 0
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election
Reagan - 43,903,230 - 50.7% - 489
Carter - 35,481,115 - 41.0% - 49
Anderson - 5,719,850 - 6.6% - 0
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election
Bush - 50,456,002 - 47.9% - 271*
Gore - 50,999,897 - 48.4% - 266*
Nader - 2,882,955 - 2.74% - 0
* It was found, after Bush’s inauguration, that any correct re-counting of Florida would have awarded it to Gore.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jan/29/uselections2000.usa
I’m not crazy enough to parse 435 House seats, but I did do the Senate races:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/
“There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents.”
AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R
This wouldn’t flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.
FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.
Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn’t show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don’t see a split ticket there.
MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R
MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R
MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.
Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.
NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R
OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R
Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it’s a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.
PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R
TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.
Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn’t sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.
WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R
WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.
CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.
DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.
HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D’d.
Bob McDermott - R
IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.
MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.
ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D’s.
MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.
MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.
MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.
ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.
NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I
Osborn is making this a nail biter, but I don’t see a steady red state going I.
NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.
NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.
NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.
NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.
RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.
TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.
UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.
VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.
VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.
WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia
WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.
So…
Ind. -> D +1 (Sinema, no real change)
D -> R +1 (Montana)
Ind. -> R +1 (Manchin)
Tossup - OH
Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).
As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.
So if Montana flips. 50 R, 46 D + 4 I = 50. VP is the tie breaker.
WV flips with Manchin’s seat going R. 51 R, 46 D + 3 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.
AZ flips with Sinema’s seat going D. 51 R, 47 D + 2 I = 49. Doesn’t change the math as Sinema caucused with the Democrats.
OH being the tossup, could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. OTOH - Could be 51 R vs. 47 D + 2 I = 49. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.
NE is a wildcard if it flips from R to I. 51 R vs. 46 D + 3 I = 49.
However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.
The problem is this:
Democrats want a peaceful solution to the Genocide.
Republicans want a faster, more complete genocide.
One of those two parties is going to lead for the next four years.
Since when has a genocide ever ended peacefully?
They keep arguing for an alternate choice where there is none, so, yeah, I’m pretty sure they aren’t getting it.