The fundamental question in professional data-driven football betting is that of autocorrelation vs regression to the mean. Does doing worse than previously indicate that your new normal is worse, or that you will eventually return to a higher level.
In this case what’s clear is that we need to create more chances. The issue is whether you view it as:
we’ve been lucky to get relatively good results with poor chance creation and need to pay better.
or
we’ve gone through a bad patch of form but still managed to pick up some good results, when performances return to their expected level we’ll be laughing.
The fundamental question in professional data-driven football betting is that of autocorrelation vs regression to the mean. Does doing worse than previously indicate that your new normal is worse, or that you will eventually return to a higher level.
In this case what’s clear is that we need to create more chances. The issue is whether you view it as:
we’ve been lucky to get relatively good results with poor chance creation and need to pay better.
or
we’ve gone through a bad patch of form but still managed to pick up some good results, when performances return to their expected level we’ll be laughing.