To be honest we have 18 goals and 11 big chances, it means that we have scored goals off penalties and deflections and have been significantly luckier. This is not sustainable…. If I was Arteta I would be worried that we are lacking firepower in the striker department and our reliable creative players aren’t delivering as they used to. Odegaard and Saka haven’t been the force they were last season. In fact our players aren’t in top 10 in goals scored and assists.
Defensively we are solid now… but come January transfer season, he needs to add some power to the frontline.
This may sound unpopular and I am no way shitting on the manager or the team, just a stat that I am trying to wrap my head around…. Happy to be change my mind.
The fundamental question in professional data-driven football betting is that of autocorrelation vs regression to the mean. Does doing worse than previously indicate that your new normal is worse, or that you will eventually return to a higher level.
In this case what’s clear is that we need to create more chances. The issue is whether you view it as:
we’ve been lucky to get relatively good results with poor chance creation and need to pay better.
or
we’ve gone through a bad patch of form but still managed to pick up some good results, when performances return to their expected level we’ll be laughing.