VW needs to get the short van down to $40K and import it to the States so I can buy one. There’s a middle market they just can’t reach. I’m not paying $60K for an 8000lb van lol.

I think having average round trip commute range on battery alone is kinda the sweet spot. So 5 PHEVs producing near zero emissions over lifetime versus one BEV.

Volt PHEV is one of the better PHEVs that’s ever been offered. They were way ahead of the curve on that. PHEVs with a 50mi all electric range without an atrocious power dropoff are the sweet spot right now. They’re watching Toyota sell every Prius Prime they can make and feeling some regret right now.

It seems that all the major manufacturers underestimated the challenges of making battery packs at scale. Bolt EV Chevy had to replace a ton of batteries, so they felt those growing pains there. Ultium has been slow to scale and IMO may be a fundamentally flawed platform if they can’t make low cost models on it. Toyota can’t even make enough batteries to support its hybrids much less make a real push into BEVs.

And honestly why should they? A 50mi range BEV with an efficient onboard generator makes a lot of sense for many people. Maybe they’re right to make this move.

The credits. $7500 federal + $3000 state w/ $30000 EV = a commuter vehicle for $19.5K that will save us $10K more in fueling costs over 5 years. That makes it effectively $15K cheaper than a Civic over vehicle lifetime.

The next one might be a harder sell over an ICE… Bolt going away and nothing else within $8K of that price after incentives. Closest thing is a model 3 RWD and I won’t be buying a Tesla.

Modified was key word there but I’ll accept that’s a bit of a stretch on my part. The rear gigacasting shares a lot of design elements and much of the basic geometry on its lower end with the Model Y rear subframe. The casting itself is much larger & has a lot of structural reinforcement that’s completely unnecessary on the Y.

From the leaked photos it looks to be a very car like suspension design.

I half wonder if changing course and lowering it, losing the air ride suspension and just marketing it as a ute would be a bigger winner. It seems like it might actually do well as a sportier car like vehicle. Could still keep the high tow and haul ratings. Prob look pretty cool slammed on some 18s with thin rubber and would put any 60s El Camino or 2000s Aussie ute to shame on a drag strip.

Periodically other manufacturers have had 20-25% of US market share for overall vehicle sales so it’s tough to justify their valuation based on that. A frequent justification of that valuation was that the company could maintain market share. 50+% was always unrealistic but if they can’t capture more than 25% what would make them more valuable than another make making good margins? Toyota for instance.

Tesla has been disconnected from fundamentals forever but “growth” companies start to suffer in the market when the revenue growth and future market share start to decline. Falling margins doesn’t help their case.

The Dodge seems like a better comp to me personally, since both are 4 door sedans. Teslas are kinda muscle sedans if you think about it. Fast as heck in a straight line but even M3 performance isn’t really something you’d take canyon carving.

“Not doing well” is extremely relative for a company with almost a Trillion valuation. They had 60+% of the EV market for a long time and it was priced into their share price that they’d continue to have a quasi monopoly if the industry as well as be “more than a cat company”.

They still increased sales, revenue, and margins are still better than much of the industry. That said, they only have 4 models, only two of which really sell in large numbers, all in need of a refresh now and revolutionary vs evolutionary update within a few years in most industry analyst opinions. Cybertruck looks like a money sink with no end in sight and $25K EV doesn’t currently exist and seems like another case of over promising.

I still see almost as many new Teslas as all other EV brands combined where I live, but 5 years ago I only saw Teslas, and I’m seeing more and more of the “failed startup” cars like Lucids and Rivians, and traditional auto companies are popping up on the roads all over the place. Even some forgotten cars like Bolt EV were selling like crazy this past 6 months where I live. See a lot of electric BMWs.

By most metrics they had a good year but they failed at biggest metric: maintaining market share as the market exploded in size. They’re cutting margins to try to maintain it but it just isn’t working because there are other things besides just the amount of vehicle you get per cost that are driving people’s choices. Brand loyalty, luxury experience, quality control, form factor, performance and range all matter too.

It’s a 6 year old platform. We make fun of the charger for being on a 20 year old platform you really want Model 3 to follow that approach? 6-10 years is a pretty normal cycle. Most manufacturers have more then 2 or 3 vehicle platforms. The platform is admirably light but that’s really the main advantage over competitors, whose platforms are typically stiffer.

It’s also a large platform for a theoretically $15K cheaper car. Why use a midsize platform for a entry level spec car? FWD might make sense, for instance, since half the US market lives where they get adverse weather at least a couple times a year. Requiring AWD for traction will defeat entire purpose of a cheap car if it’s locked behind a $7500 increase to the price.

You guys need some new talking points to reflect the fact the rest of the world has caught up. Nobody is impressed anymore by what Tesla released 6 years ago. Nobody believes things are coming “next quarter!” After being lied to repeatedly. Cybertruck appears to be on a modified Y platform instead of being a sealed exoskeleton that can float. Semi range is laughable and Pepsi drivers hate them.

Imagine all the resources they threw at the CT going to this.

Rumors of an imminent launch of one are not legit. Seems to be vaporware; may get the parts bin special quick release which would still be at least 2 years and would require heavily recycling components from the Model 3.

There really isn’t that much room in the margins to go all that cheaper than Model 3. They can go with a smaller battery, and a cheaper/smaller motor. Have to design a new likely smaller platform at that point, or use the rapidly aging Model 3 platform to avoid R&D and engineering costs. Could go cloth and even cheaper materials for the interior; smaller screen, no sensors or cameras for autopilot. Does that get them to $15K cheaper to make than a Model 3? I dunno, that’s a tough ask.

If they’d spent the last 5 years trying instead of working on CT, company would be much better off.

Drum brakes are great for vehicles where that’s all they need. You’ll find lots of 60s and 70s cars still running their original drums long after every disc brake variant of the car has had 2 or 3 sets of calipers and discs. They hold up better in northern climates and areas where roads are salted. They can’t get rocks or debris into them on rough patches of road. They can have plenty of stopping power when coupled with regeneration and shouldn’t have heat cycling issues since they aren’t being used much if at all.

I don’t see a downside to them other than them being an older technology. Older tech isn’t always necessarily inferior.