Do you think he’s right?
It’ll take at least that long for the EU member states to forgive the UK for its fuckery. The memory of Brexit will have to fade enough in their minds before it’s even considered.
- It’s doubtful that the same deal will be on the table, as it would be politically untenable domestically.
- Getting France and Germany on board will be hard, given that they enjoy much more power in our absence.
- The risk of our exit again when our xenophobia acts up would have to be objectively low, or no member state would take the chance on approval lest we fuck over their economy again when we throw an egocentric racist tantrum.
I can see clear calls in 15 years. But likely another 10-20 before those calls agree on any approach to join.
There will be a huge we should get what we had push making any actual agreement impossible.
I expect (at least) one party will eventually adopt Rejoin as a distinguishing policy, and maybe sooner rather later.
But the appetite for Rejoin will probably depend on the shape of the UK economy and the political direction of the EU in 10+ years. If the Starmer project really has been delivering tangible growth by then, people may feel Brexit has (inadvertently) “worked” in the end. If the EU achieves greater and greater integration in the UK’s absence it may seem less palatable to enough voters.
Both of those are also going to be influenced by external factors like the direction of a possible Trump second term, the outcome of the war in Ukraine etc.
I would hypothesise now that the UK has left, France’s proposals for a closer integrated EU standing army and two-speed EU are much more likely to go ahead.
Because of that I see a future in 20 years for something like a three-speed EU:
- Full integration.
- Free movement of goods and people.
- Mutual recognition of qualifications and frictionless framework for EU standard goods back and forth across the boarder. With a seat but no voting rights for the discussion of said standards.
I can see the UK rejoining the EU in the future. It just makes sense for both sides. And 15-20 years might be a sensible time scale to get over Brexit, too. BUT: I’m not sure if the UK can afford to stay out of the EU for that long.
The problem is pride and British exceptionalism, like Polish people in the UK are “immigrants”, while English people in France are “expats”. Those expats form close-knitted communities, buy in their own shops, don’t like to converse in the native language of the country, don’t integrate well with the natives - exactly what the leavers said about e.g. the Polish people in the UK. Pride and exceptionalism made the “Project Leave” work. It was a “blue passport”, “our fish”, “souvereignity”, “we can trade on our own”, “they need us more than we need them” that powered the “independence” movement.
So the UK citizens need to overcome that and realize that one state fighting alone in a world of ever-growing Blocks is bound to fail. Any rational person knew this all along - but they were called out as “fear-mongers”. And any rational analysis of Brexit must state that leaving was a monumental failure. But admitting that one has f-ed up on a big scale is probably one of the hardest things one can do. Especially as there are nearly as many people who voted “remain” and will tell the leavers “told you so”.
I expect that the UK needs the time to realize how bad things can get outside the EU, and whatever makes the UK realize this must be harder than the hurt pride of admitting failure. And the UK will have to deal with some points that will hurt - not because the EU is out to hurt, but because things have changed since the UK joined the first time. And quite a lot of those things were actually started by the UK when they were still members.
I wish you guys all the best, and I want you back in the EU. And in the tiny little corner of the universe where I can help I’ll surely do that.
I think we’re waiting for a bunch of very stupid and very stubborn people to … what do they say? … “age out” of the voting pool.
There is a universe in which the Tories make rejoining a “sensible economic management” election pledge in ten years or so, in order to reinvent themselves as something electable in a post-boomer world. All we have to do is jump tracks out of the Stupidest Timeline. Everyone push the wall to your left, one two three NOW.
I think we’re waiting for a bunch of very stupid and very stubborn people to … what do they say? … “age out” of the voting pool.
Sounds like it. It is harsh, but probably necessary.
The SI unit of progress is the Funeral.
God yes please. And can we boot Farage off the island when it happens.
No. He needs to be trialed for treason, then jailed when found guilty.
I was thinking more booting him into the sea but I’ll take that outcome too.
God yes please.
Can I ask why you want to rejoin?
Scotland never wanted to leave in the first place. I believe there’s strength in sticking with the other EU members (esp as I currently live in the US and feel the differences between US legislation and EU legislation most days e.g. right to repair) and I believe a lot of what people were sold on (particularly farmers and fishermen) to vote leave was inaccurate.
I believe there’s strength in sticking with the other EU members
What do you mean, “strength”?
Edit: tumbleweed Did they not even understand what they themselves meant? Can they not be bothered to answer? Are they really just fascists and want to avoid making that obvious? We’ll never know…
Looking at this and your other comments I think they just don’t want to engage with the sealion
the sealion
I don’t understand what you mean.
Sealioning is a type of trolling or harassment that consists of pursuing people with relentless requests for evidence, often tangential or previously addressed, while maintaining a pretense of civility and sincerity, and feigning ignorance of the subject matter.
Whether or not you’re intending to do this your comments do come off a little bit like that. I don’t really like the term that much as people often use it to dismiss any further discussion, but it could be why the other commenters don’t want to chat.
feigning ignorance of the subject matter
your comments do come off a little bit like that
LOL damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If one doesn’t understand what another person means, there’s no way to gain understanding except to ask them. That people interpret genuine attempts to enter into dialogue as feigning ignorance shows, to me at least, the astonishingly low level of average communication ability.
people often use it to dismiss any further discussion
Communication can be too difficult for some.
His optimism for Britain to rejoin the bloc is not matched by Jean-Claude Juncker, another former European Commission chief, who in July suggested it would take “a century or two”.
Somewhere between 15 years and two centuries is a good guess.
I hope so. Though 15 years may be a bit optimistic. The UK has passed through the phase of leaving the EU being a benefit in itself (freeing it up to rule the waves once again unfettered by the whims of politically-correct vino-drinking bureaucrats and such), and, faced with the sunk cost of its folly, has retreated into denial. Brexit may have cost us dearly, it goes, but it’s a price we have to pay to be true to our destiny, rather than pretending to be just another small country interchangeable with Spaniards and Belgians. Eventually the fit of pique will end and the consensus will settle on Brexit being a bit shite, and there not being any meaningful glorious destiny for which it is a price worth paying, and the question is how do we become like the Spaniards or Belgians (or, indeed, the Irish), enjoying the conveniences of the EU. It may take a generation though.
I hope so.
Can I ask why?
conveniences of the EU
Such as?
Ancient flag shagging Tories… Hard Left Labour unions… With these powers combined they become:
CAPTAIN BREXIT! He’s their hero. Gonna bring the UK down to zero. Did a skid. Killed a kid. And crashed his balls on a dustbin lid.
I’d welcome them back today if I had a say. Just no extra sausage anymore.
The sooner the better. The architects and enablers of Brexit should be tried as traitors.
The architects and enablers of Brexit should be tried as traitors.
Why? How did they betray the nation?
With their lies and promises, all the while setting themselves up so they wouldn’t suffer, and even profit from it.
Playing to their masters in Russia to weaken UK and Europe, affecting trade and movement. Relaxing, environmental and farming regulations that protect the customer and environment.
The list goes on.
Wow, who did all that? Do you have references to back up what you’re saying?
Nah, they don’t want our troublesome right wing racist selfish arses back in their club.
They have enough of those in their club already tbh.
THE BRI’ISH PEOPLE VOTED FOR BREXIT GET OVER IT REMOANERS
Prime cut of gammon there.
Lol.
It will be even funnier if Britain rejoins and then immediately leaves again.
All we have to do is start running rigged elections and we’d fit right in.
God I hope not. Why the fuck would we want to join the EU again?
