RIP Jim Chanos. mark Spiegel must be nervous.
By the end of 2026
Maaaaaybe if we are looking worldwide and considering motorized scooters and other 3 and 2 wheeled vehicles as “cars”.
But among actual cars? No chance.
Fuel is $1.80-$2.00/L CAD for regular here. We have seen $2.50. I don’t know a single person who says that their next car will be ICE.
It’s still $2.60 a gallon in Texas.
1.29 cad here, we peaked around 2.
Where is Gas in canada still $2/l?
I don’t know a single person who says that their next new car will be ICE, but I don’t know either a lot of people able to afford a new car. Most people over here (France) buy used except if they’re old and rich, the average age of individuals buying brand new cars is around 60 years old.
And the problem is people above 60 years old are quite difficult to convince to go electric as they have a full happy boomer life behind with ICE cars.
(Individuals are around half the sales of new cars I’d say, the rest are companies and rentals that buy new and resell after a few years, and for now they haven’t made the switch.)
But if these people don’t buy electric, there won’t be electric cars on second hand market for us normal people.
It been at the equivalent of over $2.50 CAD all year here.
But electricity has only recently dipped below $0.50. We’re a while off people without home charging switching for cost reasons, since that’s as expensive as fuel.
Yes home charging is huge. Here we have $0.14/kWh CAD power and they say we are getting a even cheaper night rate from midnight to 6am for charging.
I mean yes but when you add all the costs and luxury tax of EV you are back to same cost just changes when your are paying it.
Luxury tax?? Don’t buy a luxury car. Ev’s are getting affordable now.
Ever actually fill out a spreadsheet of your operating cost per mile? I did. A full size trades van needs over $100,000 in fuel over 400,000km. The same electric is around $20,000 in electricity.
Gas is still too cheap. Our whole society is based on cheap gas. Our urban sprawl is from cheap gas. Then environment is changing because of cheap gas. It has to stop, the negative externalities are too great.
Doing a conversion it is 1.11CAD/L here in CO for gas, very inexpensive, but we have a good amount of EVs anyway as Denver is a very centralized city IMO. Thankfully decent charging in a lot of the state especially once Tesla chargers are open to all.
BEV? Probably not. BEV + PHEV + HEV I’d say sure and maybe we are not far already.
I don’t think he was including standard HEV. Including those the EU is almost at 50% right now.
when someone has “director” in the title, they are usually a bit out of touch with reality when it is not in their immediate domain of expertise.
Not in the U.S. No way in hell. It’s already political. We’re gonna plateau at 25% for a long time.
Yeah… NO
This article was very difficult to read. How are EVs going to go from producing 1m units in 2023 to 7m+ in 2026? Best I could tell is it’s based on “some graph” that was shown to them but not us?
They’ll surpass ICE once you finally make them affordable. I can go out today and get an ICE for $20k with a better warranty and 40 mpg.
Plus $15k dealer markup and tip.
Better Headline: Random guy who works at Tesla makes completely uneducated guess outside his area of expertise.
In China probably. In Europe possibly by the end of 2026. The US is probably a little behind that.
Hopefully he is right!
There are only two things holding it back right now
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battery price when one fails
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price of vehicles
So expect these two things very shortly from Tesla:
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Cheaper batteries
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cheaper vehicles
Cost of repair and cost of insurance are huge factors too.
Insurance is $116/month for my model 3 EV and hasn’t gone up since I got it. Some like rivian are still very rare so much more expensive to repair compared to a model 3 or other high volume EV
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Not unless prices come waaaay down.
In most markets the operational cost payback of the capital cost increase is ~7years for typical usage. If resale values are included in the calculation the time shortens by a few years. So for a typical car owner they currently cost less than ICE vehicles in total costs.
Hope so