- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a revised nuclear doctrine declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country.
Putin’s endorsement of the new nuclear deterrent policy comes on the 1,000th day after he sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
It follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russia with U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles.
The signing of the doctrine, which says that any massive aerial attack on Russia could trigger a nuclear response, reflects Putin’s readiness to threaten use of the country’s nuclear arsenal to force the West to back down as Moscow presses a slow-moving offensive in Ukraine.
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He’s done so multiple times already. He has threaten he WILL use them when that one red line was crossed more times than I recall and ALL those lines were crossed
At this point the state of the Russian army is so sad that I need some proof that Russian nukes actually still works before I start worrying
Someone is seeing ATACMS and is being a weenie little bitch about it. Fuck you, Putin
Oh shit or get off the pot, ffs.
Eat my balls putin
More empty threats.
declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country
Isn’t that exactly what has been happening in Kursk? Kinda late to do anything about it.
Paper tiger has become a wet paper tiger…dude is just trying to hold on as long as possible. When he dies the power vacuum is going to be insane, unlike NK who has basically a king… I don’t think anyone is in line for when putin bites it.
i think this part already looked like this
Couldn’t he have just used them whenever he wanted anyway? Who in his country would stop him? I could see his generals advising against it but at the same time, they know they could be killed for the wrong opinions.
in his country? no one. in general? that one nuclear bunker buster in Wyoming with his name written on it
Link? That sounds interesting.
There’s no mention of bunker buster or Wisconsin on that page.
Sorry, i meant Wyoming. That’s where american ICBMs are. Bunker is where Putin is likely to be in such scenario, and all probable locations are known to american strategic targeting
Posturing. Nothing more. He’s trowing the weekly Trumpian hissy fit.
I wish the worst for this man
Aww is he a bit upset Ukraine is allowed to fight back a bit more fairly?
“We destroy your cities, but how dare you defend yourself? Escalation!”
I’m still not worried for the same reason I haven’t been worried this whole time about it.
Putin has children and grandchildren. It’s rare that a dictator does not want a legacy and I’m guessing he doesn’t want his descendants ruling over Vault 13.
I don’t read it that way. I think the previous “doctrine” stated that all nuclear weapons (including tactical) would only be used defensively against a nuclear attack, or if the country were in an imminent threat to existence.
This change means that if and when Ukraine step up their attacks inside Russian territory with conventional weapons made by western nuclear able nations, they are going to consider that attack to be made by a nuclear able nation.
I don’t think that means they plan to start firing off strategic nukes against the west triggering a MAD scenario. That’s not how I read it at all.
What he wants us to believe is that he’s dusting off the tactical nuclear stockpile he has at his disposal, to be used against Ukraine with the justification that the attack counts as a strike from a nuclear able nation and as such their existence is threatened.
Now, here’s the problem with this gambit. If Ukraine do step up their attacks and he doesn’t do anything or worse they don’t actually work, it’s actually worse for him that he rattled this sabre and then didn’t follow-up on the promise.
Anyway, that’s how I’m reading it at any rate.
In my eye, a lot of the value of Ukraine is the land itself for farming and (for russia) shipping capability; MAD is the only situation i would expect nukes to hit the ground, and I imagine another oligarch would knife Putin in the back before it gets to that. Then again, the US just elected trump, so oligarchs seem to be fairly spineless.
fuck it, kill us all with nuclear fire, at least it’s faster than slowly boiling to death from climate change.
While I agree on the whole, tactical nuclear weapons are usually in the 300t equivalent range. This is going to go scorched earth to a distance of around 250m, with the worst of the radiation damage limited to around 1 mile. Not underplaying it, but in terms of an entire country it’s not that much. I tried on my relatively small town/large village. Not even half in the radiation zone (Nukemap).
That’s likely going to be able to entirely take out an enemy position with a single strike, or a medium village/very small town while really not overall damaging the country as a whole.
But, I don’t think he’ll do it. It is I think the move he is trying to telegraph to the world, but it carries far too much risk to actually do it.
If he does, he’s assured of action by western nations. Honestly, I’m not even sure Trump (well I at least hope not) would try to downplay it. It would be a huge escalation and everyone, especially Russia knows it.
I’m less concerned about irradiation as I am about usable soil being evaporated, blown away, filled with debris, etc
I definitely agree. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I have very little faith in guardrails
Stop worrying and learn to love the bomb.
Nah, this is Russia, they don’t have vaults. They have metro stations and lines. It’s different.
Putin is just swinging his dick around, as he’s always doing when showing “power”. Fuck off, little man.
If Putin does use a nuke on Ukraine, what’s the appropriate response from Ukraine’s allies? A full scale invasion to remove Putin from power? I mean if Putin used a nuke once then he can do it again right?
In that scenario I’m not sure if Ukraine allies are as significant as Russians allies. I very much doubt China has any tolerance for nuclear eacalation, that sets a precedent that will change how the West behaves in Taiwan. I imagine Xi’s fury at being undermined this way would manifest in ways that meaningfully hurt Russia without any actual violence.
It’s hard to say what’s appropriate. A lot of people feel like that’s already the appropriate move, given their hugely successful election interference, assassinations abroad, continual war crimes, nuclear sabre rattling, allying with rogue nations, and the resulting destabilization of the global power dynamic. How do you deal with that if not regime change? Putin was so sure that regime change was an American aim that he made it a necessity. Paranoid Russian dictators and self-fulfilling prophecies, name a more iconic duo.
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That is and was the entire point of the nuclear armsrace back then, sometimes called the MAD (mutually assured destruction) doctrine.
Basically, you stock up enough to guarantee you can destroy the world and now no one can use it, without being, well, MAD.
But Putin might be mad enough to ignore that
The Russians always had plans drawn up to conduct a limited, theater-wide strike or a tactical strike with nukes. MAD was based on the idea no one would do that and that strategic weapons were the only realistic way to use nukes which is scary as hell.
I think the world will still hold back from full war. I expect a significant increase in weapons support for Ukraine, but nobody wants to get their country nuked so they won’t put boots on the ground, or attack Russia directly.
Probably a large scale conventional missile strike on Russian military targets Putin himself being the number one priority. He knows that the western intelligence agencies know his whereabouts at all times so unless he’s going to live in a bunker for the rest of his life he knows that nuclear strike will literally be a suicide.
Go for it big boy, drop a nuke on Ukraine! The next day you wake up to China saying you’re a danger to the world and for their relationships with anyone else and you are on your own against any retailation.
Kinda doubt it would take a full day.
If the Russians launch a nuke, every nuclear state is going to get automatic warnings that either an ICBM has launched, or a nuclear flash was detected. A few minutes after that, the US president gets forcibly dragged to a bunker under the White House and told to pick a nuclear response and give the launch codes to Strategic Command.
If the president elects for ICBMs in his response, then those launch within a minute or 2 of the order going out. Russia will see this via satellite and will probably also launch in retaliation. In about 30 minutes, hundreds of nukes are in the air or detonating, and probably dozens of sub launched nukes have already gone off. A few hours after all that, the nuclear bombers arrive and drop their payloads. Nuclear war, the whole thing from start to finish, takes less than a business day. Nukes destroy cities and decapitate governments in one strike, so the proportional response is extreme violence until the other party stops launching or everyone is dead.
And that’s really just the US and Russia, there’s like 10 other nuclear nations that will also pick a side. If Russia fires off a nuke, someone will respond in kind, and that just leads to the rest of the dominos falling.
My point is, nuclear war happens so fast that there’s not really time for china to say anything. Once you light the fuse, it doesn’t stop. No one has ever tried to restore deterrence, because no one was supposed to be stupid enough to test deterrence. The plan for restoring deterrence is therefore equally stupid: keep launching like we planned to anyway.
Assuming that any nuclear weapons involved are only targeted at Ukraine I don’t believe that Nuclear Holocaust follows immediately. The United States has a direct line to the Kremlin for things like this and I’m sure that the other nuclear powers do as well.
In this “Russia nuking Ukraine” scenario I think Russia would have a bigger problem with the Europeans than the United States. The Europeans would be seriously pissed off and both the French and the Brits are well able to respond with a range of economic, political, conventional, and even nuclear options.
China would be hella displeased too, and not solely because of Taiwan, but because they would have to immediately choose between supporting Russia or doing business with literally anyone else in the world as the economic sanctions applied to Russia and any of their allies would be immediate and total.
Russia isn’t going to launch because the only possible outcomes is their total isolation from all other nations or their complete destruction in nuclear fire. Putin knows this.
You’ll only make that mistake one time, big boy.
