Well said.

The number of users here who think far left protest non-votes matter more in this election than centrists/moderates and disillusioned conservative Republicans is bordering on comical.

This election will come down to the usual suspects lately:

Moderates in PA, MI, WI, GA, NV, and AZ.

Personally, I’m predicting overall lower turnout than 2020 and it’s more a matter of which candidate motivates their centrist voters from 4 years ago in these locations to actually get out and vote again.

Given their track records, it is my prediction that centrist Biden voters from 2020 will be more likely to stay loyal and motivated than centrist Trump voters from the same time frame…who now have his trials as well as the Jan. 6th debacle, weighing on their minds. Further, I feel like the trump campaign has greater enthusiasm but among a smaller core, whereas the Biden camp has lukewarm enthusiasm among a broader set…and since a lukewarm vote has as much impact as a zealous one, the calculus favors Biden in that regard.

So both guys get fewer votes overall than they did 4 years ago…but the amount that each one loses (and where) is what decides things. And if that’s how it plays out, I think the map is going to look very similar to the last go-round. I think Biden is least safe in AZ (depending on how the conversation about the border plays out) and GA (which is just the battleground in the country right now, it seems). I think he’s safest in Michigan, and the remaining states of WI and PA I’d say lean Biden but are certainly in play. I’m not as familiar with Wisconsin, but Pennsylvania has handed Democrats more and more wins since the last time, most importantly in the midterms, when Pennsylvanians gave Democrats the majority in the state house in 2022 for the first time in ages.

So, barring any major shakeup in the campaigns, I feel like just looking at the Xs and Os, every state votes the way it did 4 years ago, except MAYBE the states Biden flipped. Of those, I feel Michigan and Pennsylvania stay blue.

If those two predictions are correct, Biden can even lose Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and still end up with 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268, and still narrowly win. While I’d like a fatter margin, I feel it’s a wholly reasonable scenario that Biden carries every state Clinton did in 2016, plus two of the 5 battleground states he picked up in 2020.