So the soft market for EVs is hardly a surprise- the news is about up front costs and charging infrastructure etc but the simple fact is that the fall in EV demand has mirrored the fall in gas prices. I bet a dollar a gallon increase in gas would drive ev sales through the roof…
But as EV adoption rises, demand for gas will fall by the same amount, right? Which would mean that gains in EV popularity essentially guarantees that gas remain cheap, which means that people will want gas cars indefinitely. As much as I am a believer in market efficiency, I fear that we are stuck with gas cars for a very very long time.
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Gas will still be expensive because its prices and output are determined by dictators and wars. They will just cut production to keep the price high like they do now.
There has been no “fall in EV demand.” More EVs were sold last year, more last year than the year before that, etc etc.
It’s not the exponential growth curve that other countries have seen (our politics are too stupid for that), but it’s not slowing down either.
Nobody really looked at the Chevy Bolt back in late 2016-early 2017 when it was released. Putin invades Ukraine, gas prices go up dramatically. The bolt became a hot commodity even after the fire recall, pun intended.
gas and ev sales are not a direct correlation.
Gas prices are significantly affected by international trade and refinement of oil and therefore an indicator of international demand and production ratios.
Gasoline won’t ever get cheap. If demand drops, they’ll produce less instead of dropping the price. Because no matter what, it costs money to extract, ship crude, refine crude, ship gasoline, and sell gasoline.
Everyone knows that gas prices, now that they are low, will never rise again.
Time to buy a 6-liter monster SUV!
My theory is that the largest part of the cohort receptive to trying an BEV have already gotten one, and the remaining fewer cannot carry a high sales figure. In short, BEV sellers are running out of the receptive market.
The average cost of owning a car varies widely - you may be thinking about the cost of a new car. My wife’s 2005 Prius has about 150k miles on it and costs us very little. Even if we drove it the usual 15k miles per year it would only take about 320 gallons of gasoline, so maybe $1500/year. The other costs of insurance, registration and maintenance are more than twice the cost of gasoline even for this chrapo car.
Of course if you want a giant behemoth or want to go 0-60 quickly or want fancy technology, then you will pay a LOT more. I just don’t think gasoline prices are a major factor in the USA.
Correlation and causation. Yes fuel prices have an effect on EV demand. But right now the thing suppressing demand is high purchase cost coupled with high interest rates which only serves to push the effective purchase cost even higher.
It’s fashionable with EVs for some reason to entirely ignore purchase cost and fixate on running costs but this misses the big picture.
Big picture…average new car purchase price…(+$48,000)[https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/people-spending-more-on-new-cars-but-prices-not-necessarily-rising-a3134608893/#:~:text=The average cost of new,many other factors at play.]
The opperating costs is what fills the small price gap.
ICE car sales are down too.
The reason…
High APR loans.
This isn’t an EV thing.
Home sales are rock bottom too.
The last year of any sitting US president usually results in a recession because of the uncertainty of who will be the next president.
So in 2025, you’ll see a boom and car sales (EV’s and ICE). Then in 2027, the cycle repeats.
In Norway with the highest number of EVs pr capita, gas is still expensive. Oil price is global, so I guess thats why.
You could argue that this will open up for closing down oil production in the future to keep up with lower demands.
You also have to have really cheap gas to compete with home charging
If less people want something hard to produce, you spend more to produce it and you must sell it at higher price
It could cost me 9x more to power an electric than a manual (my term for backwards gas vehicles where you have to drive around and look for fuel like 1890).
I’d still drive the EV. This theory about the elasticity of demand being based off a 30 cent gain or drop in gasoline prices is 20 years too old and outmoded.