I think Euro is harder because there are more high-level teams that can challenge for the title. On average, the level of the teams that make it past the group stage is higher (in my opinion).

What do you guys think?

Keep it civil please :)

  • yossigol@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    World Cup semi-finalists since in the past 40 years:
    1982: Italy, West Germany, Poland, France (4 from UEFA)
    1986: Argentina, West Germany, France, Belgium (3 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL)
    1990: Germany, Argentina, Italy, England (3 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL)
    1994: Brazil, Italy, Bulgaria, Sweden (3 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL)
    1998: France, Brazil, Croatia, Netherlands (3 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL)
    2002: Brazil, Germany, Turkey, South Korea (2 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL, 1 from AFC)
    2006: Italy, France, Portugal, Germany (4 from UEFA)
    2010: Spain, Netherlands, Uruguay, Germany (3 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL)
    2014: Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Brazil (2 from UEFA, 2 from CONMEBOL)
    2018: France, Croatia, Belgium, England (4 from UEFA) 2022: Argentina, France, Croatia, Morocco (2 from UEFA, 1 from CONMEBOL, 1 from CAF)

    In summary, out of 44 spots in World Cup semis, 33 (75%) went to 11 different teams from UEFA, 9 (20%) went to 3 different teams from CONMEBOL, and 2 (5%) went elsewhere. Winning the EUROs is significantly more difficult.

    • gtzgoldcrgo@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      Why would you not compare those numbers with the number of uefa and conmebol teams that participated? There is always more than double uefa teams than conmebol in world cups

      • yossigol@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        The World Cup is not a lottery. The number of participants doesn’t correlate linearly to the success record.
        50% of CONMEBOL teams enter the World Cup (70% from the next one!). I don’t think that if you brought Venezuela and Bolivia for Denmark and Serbia, the stats would have changed much.

        Every Copa America, there are two great teams, plus one or two good teams (Uruguay, sometimes. Chile, for a second. Colombia for a moment), two or three average ones, and the rest are garbage.

        Every Euro, there are 4-6 great teams (right now, France, Spain, Portugal, England) on par with Brazil or Argentina, and much deeper. Then there are 4-6 good teams, at least as good as Uruguay and Colombia (right now, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy). There are 10 more teams better than Peru, Paraguay, Venezuela, and such.

        If FIFA didn’t gift Argentina 5 laughable penalties in 7 matches, there would not have been a non-European World Champion since 2002.

        • Vicentesteb@alien.topB
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          1 year ago

          If FIFA didn’t gift Argentina 5 laughable penalties in 7 matches, there would not have been a non-European World Champion since 2002.

          Both France and Argentina scored the same amount of penalties? Not to mention Argentina scored one of their pens (vs Saudi Arabia) in a loss.

    • kaiser1000@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      South Korea and Morocco are the biggest frauds on that list. But they’re also proof that money and politics can guarantee success in football.

    • Pinewood26@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      You seem to have shut down an terrible question with facts well done and 3 points to you

    • Constant-Self-2942@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      Thorough analysis, but I think you’re not taking into account the fact that UEFA gets 13 spots in the cup whereas CONMEBOL only gets 5. So, in 2022, 20% of CONMEBOL teams made it to the semifinals, but only 15% of UEFA teams made it.