You’re all narrative merchants who want to attribute essentially random events to something more solid, as you think the sport you love is somehow devalued if you admit it wasn’t all destiny and that if the ball had bounced 10cm in the other direction one time, a team in blue would be lifting a trophy instead of a team in red.

So even when team A batters team B, hits the post eight times and then concedes a last minute deflected winner, they weren’t unlucky, but Team B had a better mentality, or Team A’s manager always bottles things in Europe so this was inevitable, or it was actually the genius of dropping player X into a false 9 rather than playing a traditional striker that made the difference.

The fact the best team doesn’t always win is what makes football interesting. Winning any big cup competition requires being both really good and really lucky. People should embrace that.

  • KingStevoI@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    I’ve stated this many times but many don’t seem to get it.

    The bounce of the ball, the gusts of the wind, the angle of impact, injuries, wrong footing, pregame fatigue, the mood of the ref, the mood of the players, the strategy, line of sight, etc., etc., all play a major role.

    Yes, strategy is the main thing in a game, but that’s in the managers control. Strategy doesn’t factor any of the above which is out of their control.

    Edit: I’ll always remember Man C v Wigan in the FA Cup, where Wigan won 1-0. Man C had ~30 shots, but most were off target, and over 80% possesion. Wigan had 1 or 2 shots and won the game.

      • KingStevoI@alien.topBEnglish
        1·
        10 months ago

        Try saying that to Wigan supporters. They’d disagree. Wigan were in league 1, 2 leagues below City, while City were breaking 9 records and equaling another. City got red carded before half time and just couldn’t get a rhythm going properly.

        • Jonoabbo@alien.topBEnglish
          1·
          10 months ago

          Wigan weren’t in League 1 when they won the FA Cup? They were in the premier league.

        • Maximuslex01@alien.topBEnglish
          1·
          10 months ago

          A great team can have an off match and a small team a great match. All players have more inspired days, they’re not machines.

    • tompain100@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      “The bounce of the ball, the gusts of the wind, the angle of impact, injuries, wrong footing, pregame fatigue, the mood of the ref, the mood of the players, line of sight, etc., etc., all play a major role.”

      Good players will be better equipped to deal with pretty much all of those things, like judging the bounce of a ball and factoring in wind direction/speed when passing or shooting.

      They can play a part in the quality of a match, but the better players will rise to overcome these factors.

    • fdar@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      I’ll always remember Man C v Wigan in the FA Cup, where Wigan won 1-0. Man C had ~30 shots, but most were off target, and over 80% possesion. Wigan had 1 or 2 shots and won the game.

      OK… but that’s one game. Can a bad team get lucky and beat a better team in one match? Sure. Can they get lucky enough to win the 6-8 games in a row it would take to win the whole thing? Way more dubious. Can they get lucky enough to win a league over 38 games? Almost definitely not.

    • antebyotiks@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      I always think of the UTD vs Bayern in 99 when they completed the treble, just before the equaliser the Bayern defender miss kicks an easy clearance then UTD score and then again to win.