You’re all narrative merchants who want to attribute essentially random events to something more solid, as you think the sport you love is somehow devalued if you admit it wasn’t all destiny and that if the ball had bounced 10cm in the other direction one time, a team in blue would be lifting a trophy instead of a team in red.
So even when team A batters team B, hits the post eight times and then concedes a last minute deflected winner, they weren’t unlucky, but Team B had a better mentality, or Team A’s manager always bottles things in Europe so this was inevitable, or it was actually the genius of dropping player X into a false 9 rather than playing a traditional striker that made the difference.
The fact the best team doesn’t always win is what makes football interesting. Winning any big cup competition requires being both really good and really lucky. People should embrace that.
Luck is definitely a huge part of sport in general.
I have argued this exact point with a lot of different people especially with my father I completely agree with you, but I’m still surprised on the amount of upvotes you got
Why are you just randomly accusing us of thinking a certain way about something? Your post hardly makes sense. Were you high when you posted this?
Its funny how the same teams seem to be lucky almost every season
Yes but that’s over a big sample, eventually (we like to think at least) luck evens out and skill rises to the top. However, for any one game OP’s point is still true. This gets magnified in a cup competition where one off day results in you going home. Idt he’s saying that it’s ALL luck but even at a casino roulette where your odds are roughly 50/50 you can go home having lost 20x in a row.
I’ve stated this many times but many don’t seem to get it.
The bounce of the ball, the gusts of the wind, the angle of impact, injuries, wrong footing, pregame fatigue, the mood of the ref, the mood of the players, the strategy, line of sight, etc., etc., all play a major role.
Yes, strategy is the main thing in a game, but that’s in the managers control. Strategy doesn’t factor any of the above which is out of their control.
Edit: I’ll always remember Man C v Wigan in the FA Cup, where Wigan won 1-0. Man C had ~30 shots, but most were off target, and over 80% possesion. Wigan had 1 or 2 shots and won the game.
What about 5th March 2023?
I always think of the UTD vs Bayern in 99 when they completed the treble, just before the equaliser the Bayern defender miss kicks an easy clearance then UTD score and then again to win.
So city couldn’t finish their chances and Wigan could, not really luck
Try saying that to Wigan supporters. They’d disagree. Wigan were in league 1, 2 leagues below City, while City were breaking 9 records and equaling another. City got red carded before half time and just couldn’t get a rhythm going properly.
A great team can have an off match and a small team a great match. All players have more inspired days, they’re not machines.
Wigan weren’t in League 1 when they won the FA Cup? They were in the premier league.
I’ll always remember Man C v Wigan in the FA Cup, where Wigan won 1-0. Man C had ~30 shots, but most were off target, and over 80% possesion. Wigan had 1 or 2 shots and won the game.
OK… but that’s one game. Can a bad team get lucky and beat a better team in one match? Sure. Can they get lucky enough to win the 6-8 games in a row it would take to win the whole thing? Way more dubious. Can they get lucky enough to win a league over 38 games? Almost definitely not.
The ball is round
Italy and north Macedonia would like to join the conversation
“The bounce of the ball, the gusts of the wind, the angle of impact, injuries, wrong footing, pregame fatigue, the mood of the ref, the mood of the players, line of sight, etc., etc., all play a major role.”
Good players will be better equipped to deal with pretty much all of those things, like judging the bounce of a ball and factoring in wind direction/speed when passing or shooting.
They can play a part in the quality of a match, but the better players will rise to overcome these factors.
What would you rather have: the best tactics, the best players, or the best luck?
Can I have a little bit of each please?
K. 👍
Freezing cold take
This is one of the worst takes I’ve seen on this subreddit, and I’ve seen an infinite amount of posts and comments
Of course luck plays a part in every game, but as I always say, football is a game of very fine margins and the smaller your margin of error is the “”“”““luckier””“”“” you’ll be every game
Small scale tends to have luck (screamer goals, gk mistakes etc), large scale the tends to take skill (and )
Also skill creates more opportunities for luck
Fuck off, yank.
Why do everyone act as if OP said that only luck is involved in football? Of course being the best team will make you win most of the time. But on one match, luck can take its toll. That’s why it’s easier to predict the winner of the league than it is to predict a playoff style cup such as the WC or the carabao. Numbers thin out the luck.
That’s why a team such as PSG, which is non arguably the best french club, doesn’t dominate the national cup as much as ligue 1.
It’s also well documented that sports with low scoring are harder to predict than sports such as basketball or baseball. Again, numbers thin out luck. If you have a high number of scoring, you can luck out sometimes on a score opportunity, and luck in at another time, in the same match. In football, you have way less goal opportunities, so lucking in on one goal, or lucking out, will probably have a huge impact on the end result of one particular game.
Nah, nothing you said really even supports that. The best team wins the majority of the time, and when they don’t it’s usually due to tactics etc… Better tactics absolutely can overcome a team with better players and it’s pretty insulting to say it was just ″luck″ when a smaller team wins rather than giving them credit for playing well in the way they needed to.
If the teams are both playing well without making any mistakes. The final score would be nil nil 0 - 0.
I agree with you. Of course i do. I watch football since the 90s and it is in fact the reason why football is so beautiful.
And i get that what you mean isn’t that this is always based on luck, but so many outcomes are up to coincidence. A game of football is millions of factors making little impacts and at some point a game is decided by a little breeze that carried a long ball a bit too far.
Managers like Guardiola try to completely erase incalculability from the game, while Mourinho really tries hard to work with it. Ancelotti seems to be in total balance and control with it. Just be there and make the right decision when the time is right.
There is also the element to work hard to achieve situations that turn out lucky for you. Players like Messi know it is important just to try until the very last moment of the game and therefore he will be rewarded by chance.