☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆

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Cake day: January 18th, 2020

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  • Ukraine now faces a catastrophic strategic dilemma that could result in a collapse of the front. Russia is now positioned to move into Sumy which has no meaningful fortifications due to prior complacency. Ukraine will be forced to divert critically depleted reserves northward to shield Kiev, and that will accelerate the collapse of the southern front which is already buckling.

    Ukrainian forces are already stretched across 965 kilometres of active frontlines, and simply lack the manpower and ammunition to plug gaps in Sumy while holding Donbas. Meanwhile, Russia leverages its larger population and industrial capacity to sustain attritional warfare. It’s also worth noting that Ukraine’s dependence on foreign aid for military and economic survival leaves it vulnerable to shifting political priorities abroad, particularly as the western alliance fractures. The push for a ceasefire by the US appears less about resolving the conflict and more about managing its consequences as Ukraine’s options narrow.