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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.

    Here’s the results as of posting this comment:

    Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%

    Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.

    TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options







  • doylio@lemmy.catoCommunism@lemmy.mlProtestation
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    5 months ago

    You’re still not answering my question.

    But it’s now clear that communism for you is a religion. Upper stage communism is the paradise that is promised to those who follow the tenets of the faith fully, and I am a heretic non-believer

    I will not be continuing this discussion any further


  • doylio@lemmy.catoCommunism@lemmy.mlProtestation
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    5 months ago

    How about instead of just saying that I am wrong, describe to me how an individual in a higher stage communist state would be prevented from slacking in his duties (and still gaining “according to his need”) without state induced violence



  • doylio@lemmy.catoCommunism@lemmy.mlProtestation
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    5 months ago

    There are different kinds of work which needs to be done for our society to function. These tasks have costs for those who perform them (lost time, spent energy, danger, boredom, etc).

    In pure communism, everyone works hard and everyone is given the spoils of the work we collectively provide. But it is rational for any individual to not work as hard, because he will bear less of the cost of that work, but still realize the same gain

    Therefore most people tend to shirk their duties, and the output of the entire collective drops. In order to maintain the system, the threat of violence is introduced, and we quickly get to Stalinist purges