Is it even worth to have qualifying only for South America? Maybe it’d be interesting to connect it with NA

I don’t know if La Verde can realistically turn this around. All I know is I GOTTA BOLIV

These are the 7 that will qualify imo

Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams (in 1998), CONMEBOL qualifiers have consisted of 18 match days in a round robin home and away format. Previously, the top 4 finishers qualified directly and the 5th place qualified to the playoff/repechaje. With the 2026 expansion, CONMEBOL slots increased to 6 automatic and 1 playoff.

Here is some data regarding the 7th place finisher in every qualifier since 1998 (except for 1998 and 2014 as Brasil was auto-qualified as previous winner and host and only 16 matches were played):

The average 7th place finish earned 21.2 points. The most points for a 7th place finish occurred in the 2018 edition by Paraguay with 24 points (GD of -3). The least amount of points for a 7th place finish occurred in the 2002 edition by Bolivia with 18 points (GD of -12).

Additionally, you can look at how many points it would’ve taken to tie the 8th place finisher - as you could advance with a goal difference above the 8th place finisher but with the same amount of points.

The average 8th place finish earned 18.4 points. The most points for an 8th place finish occurred in the 2010 edition with 22 points (GD of -6). The least points for an 8th place finish occurred in the 2002 and 2022 editions with 16 points (GD of -11 and -14 respectively in those years).

25 points would seem to be the guarantee for at least a playoff spot, but as low as 16 could be enough in a cycle where the bottom teams struggle.

One additional note for anyone interested: In the 1998 and 2014 qualifiers (16 matches without Brasil), the 6th and 7th place finishers averaged 1.28 and 1.13 points per match. Compared to 1.18 and 1.02 points per match from 7th and 8th place finishers respectively in “normal” 18 match qualifying cycles.

Bolivia 😔 I had some faith in them

What’s the hammer icon above Ecuador?

I’ll never not giggle when i read CONMEBOL and CONCACAF

Kinda mad that Brazil will most likely never ever miss a world cup. You gotta mess up badly in SA qualifiers to not make the cut. Cant see it happening to them or Argentina ever in the future.

Upsets in general will become less likely with the tournament expanding time and time again but at least I feel like the big dogs in UEFA are somewhat in danger with only about 25% of teams making it. 70% making it is crazy.

Brazil tried really hard to get a win but it never came. Venezuela killed

In terms of results (not quality of play), I give the following grades for this match day: -US grading system because I just got citizenship recently-

Argentina: B - Expected win

Brasil: D (possibly F) - Tie at home against Venezuela is essentially a loss for Brasil

Colombia: C - Very winnable match, should’ve put the match away multiple times.

Uruguay: B - stole a point in a match where they struggled. Getting a point in Colombia is never a bad result. Maybe was the justified result given the handball goal for Colombia.

Chile: A - Needed 3 points in a home match against a beatable opponent. Also, it’s a clásico.

Venezuela: A - Historic result in Brasil

Ecuador: A - Despite subpar quality, 3 points at altitude is always an excellent result.

Paraguay: C - Although a loss was expected, they never seemed to threaten. Must win at home vs Bolivia on Tuesday.

Peru: D - Lost a clásico. Looking like their November window will be extremely important (at Bolivia, vs Venezuela).

Bolivia: F - Lost at home against an unusually poor Ecuadorian side. Didn’t even salvage a point.

For anyone interested, at this stage, 34 points will guarantee at least 6th and direct qualification. 32 points guarantees 7th and at least a playoff spot. At the other end, 8 points is needed to least obtain the playoff spot at the very minimum. These totals could of course change after next matchday.

Venezuela going to the world cup? Is that happiness for my country im seeing? #TENGOFE

Argentina’s November window is going to be insane to watch. At home against Uruguay and then away at the Maracaná versus Brasil 🔥🔥🔥

I’m scared for Brasil x Argentina next month

Venezuela got a legit chance and im all here for it