I find John Mearsheimer’s prediction that Russia seeks to turn Ukraine into a inert rump state as a bulwark against NATO to be convincing. Given the apparent lack of military vitality of the west, and the indefinite delayed entry of Ukraine into NATO, the fate of Ukraine seems pretty clear. The Ukranian military command must see the writing on the wall and must also perceive NATO’s wavering material support after treating Ukranians as sacrificial pawns.
As the deceit of NATO becomes undeniable, even to Ukranians, how likely are we to see Nazis march west? What factors are involved? Imagining we see Ukraine turn on NATO, what would a NATO response look like, and what would this do to the information war? Do you think Zelelenski would still be the nominal leader at this point?
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Not going to happen because that would mean NATO being directly at war with Russia. Practically nobody in the west wants that. Ukraine will be a proxy to the end.
I think he means the current Ukrainian state, not a future Russian based Ukrainian state. As in the Ukrainians will turn their guns on Poland and Romania in retaliation for being led on and used as a proxy by NATO.
Oops, totally misread it as joining NATO. I think in terms of sentiment it’s pretty likely that they will. However, it’s not clear that they could fight in Europe without the material support, unless they’ve been husbanding weapons and ammunition in anticipation of this. What I think would be more likely is that a lot of well trained nazis are going to seep into Europe and operate terror cells there linking up with local groups. I imagine that’s already been happening, but once Ukraine starts getting routed in the East, there’s going to be a flood of these people moving into Europe.
The blowback from this war is going to be absolutely frightening.
Not too long ago here in Mexico news appeared about some narcos with weapons (apparently ATGMs or some similar stuff) that supposedly were originally supplied to Ukraine from one of the nordic countries. Don’t know if the story made it to international outlets, but if it’s true the blowback is already here. I can only imagine the kind of shit is going to go down throughout the rest of europe once the equipment and training the most deranged members of the AFU start bleeding into Borrel’s beloved “garden”.
Agreed, I don’t think Europeans realize what they got themselves into yet.
Yep, that’s what I meant and am curious about.
not even remotely. far more likely will be the opposite.
Not if Russia completes it’s goal of demilitarizing and denazifying the Ukraine. In that case Ukronazis with loaded NATO weapons would be pushed to same NATO countries they be holding responsible for their defeat. At that point things would really be interesting with all the ongoing protests now having Nazis among them.
Ukraine/NATO didn’t spent >8 years of fostering (ultra)nationalism and russophobia in Ukraine only to then sell their people on “oh wait, we were brothers and sisters all along, forget about all the previous propaganda and let’s capture Poland* together”. I think it’s much more likely that NATO will slowly drop support for Ukraine by shifting the propaganda focus on new/old boogiemen like North Korea or Iran (because nuclear something something?) as a diversion of the their petro dollar losing in relevance ever so slowly.
I worry that Ukraine will remain a breeding and training ground for european neo-nazis for the time being, unless Russia is successful in demilitarization.
(*just an example)
