International interest in oil in the Sahel and mineral wealth in Central Africa are the overarching destabilizing factors.
My view is that a vacuum in “enforcers” wouldn’t stabilize in the short term.
That said, Wagner’s human rights attrocities have been pretty egregious in CAR and it’s hard to see it as anything other than a net gain if that were to end. Probably a long tail of groups who were rolling with them/trained by them though.
International interest in oil in the Sahel and mineral wealth in Central Africa are the overarching destabilizing factors.
My view is that a vacuum in “enforcers” wouldn’t stabilize in the short term.
That said, Wagner’s human rights attrocities have been pretty egregious in CAR and it’s hard to see it as anything other than a net gain if that were to end. Probably a long tail of groups who were rolling with them/trained by them though.