[Ottawa – March 13, 2025] Mark Carney’s landslide victory as Liberal leader on Sunday has propelled the party to 49.5 per cent – a record high in our 26 years of IVR tracking. Most of these g…
EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It’s also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn’t. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see “Handling Trump” as their top priority right now, with “The Economy” in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he’s seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump’s actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.
Wow that’s a HUGE rise. I wonder what other polling firms will show this week.
EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It’s also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn’t. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see “Handling Trump” as their top priority right now, with “The Economy” in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he’s seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump’s actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.