Thank you, but i must say that i am not really feeling cynic myself - i just intervene on this kind of topics because i feel like people just think of these things as… Idk, an easy and glorious walk in the park?
I too believe things will turn out better, one of my core beliefs if that in a way or another this generation willlive to see a major global political change. But right now, in this modern context, popular power lies in other areas i believe. Things like nationwide strikes, blockades and mass demonstrations have proven (in recent history!) to be far more effective than guerrilla’ing.
And this is because the gap between soldier and civilian has widened massively during the modern era. In 1944 you could grab a random italian farmer and you would have yourself a man who’s strong, healthy, has the skills to navigate and living the land off-grid, can hunt… AND all you need to train him for is how to use a simple rifle and a maybe throw a grenade, because that what they fought with at the time. That’s how countries at the time managed to conscript unimaginable numbers of soldiers in short times.
Nowdays people are far less used to living outdoors, far less used to physically intensive activities (all of this is in general, btw) and less used to violence. On top of that, the amount of equipment a civilian would need to master to be even remotely effective against a modern military is far, far greater. More complex firearms, longer ranges, anti-tank and anti-drone measures, jamming and spotting technology… Plus all the tech knowledge needed to communicate and cooperate on safe channels, which is a task and a half in the modern era
Parties were also more militarized back then, right now no western leftist party has even an hint of the idea of a military command structure. Which would make waging a coherent campaign much more difficult.
I just can’t imagine any western government falling from a guerrilla war in which the national army gets defeated on the field. Other routes will need to be taken, i find the idea of trying to fight the government on the field extremely dangerous.
Excellent points, though take note, the goal of guerrilla warfare isn’t to defeat the enemy, but to drain his resources. Another aspect of this is the designed escalation of guerrilla warfare: No government would use a drone to take out five guys in the forest. Those guys are still at the local level, even if they plan to later on build up against the government. Quite simply the higher government wouldn’t know too much about it at first, and those 5 guys would just be dealing cops.
Now you do make note of only soldiers being prepped enough to fight a guerrilla war, true. But oppressed minorities are disproportionate servicemen. Now where are these minorities mainly located. The Southern and Southwestern US. Where are areas best suited for guerrilla campaigns? The Southern and Southwestern US. Where are the largest indigenous reservations? The Southwestern US. What does the Southwestern US have? A large mountainous border with Mexico. What areas will be affected more and more by Climate Change? The Southern and Southwestern US. If a protracted struggle were to happen, it would have to happen there.
Now I agree that for current goals, organized demonstrations and blockades will do. For now. Besides without that radical minority, what teeth do the masses have? Which is why I imagine that would be guerrillas start off as industrial saboteurs. Those types who care deeply about the environment to a radical extent most likely have the knowledge of the land. And, at least to the liberal view, these carbon partisans are attacking specific organs of land exploitation and not the state itself. WE know that the state will protect private property and is the whole point of the state, but if the goal isn’t necessarily an overthrow of the state and “just” dismantling regressive ecological exploitation systems perhaps the guerrillas wouldn’t be wiped off the Earth and instead the state bends its knees instead of provoking a revolution.
Instead of waiting for American class consciousness to rise from a change material conditions, the best way to get them off their asses is Climate Action because they can see it affecting them already and it’s detrimental and existential. Clearly the system needs to change, many Zoomers know that even tho they have no idea how they want change. Why worry of some gommunist famines if doing nothing to the systems leaves you with a pain 10x worse than any fascist propaganda could cook up. That is why we need Melons and no more electoralism from the libs.
Thank you, but i must say that i am not really feeling cynic myself - i just intervene on this kind of topics because i feel like people just think of these things as… Idk, an easy and glorious walk in the park?
I too believe things will turn out better, one of my core beliefs if that in a way or another this generation willlive to see a major global political change. But right now, in this modern context, popular power lies in other areas i believe. Things like nationwide strikes, blockades and mass demonstrations have proven (in recent history!) to be far more effective than guerrilla’ing.
And this is because the gap between soldier and civilian has widened massively during the modern era. In 1944 you could grab a random italian farmer and you would have yourself a man who’s strong, healthy, has the skills to navigate and living the land off-grid, can hunt… AND all you need to train him for is how to use a simple rifle and a maybe throw a grenade, because that what they fought with at the time. That’s how countries at the time managed to conscript unimaginable numbers of soldiers in short times.
Nowdays people are far less used to living outdoors, far less used to physically intensive activities (all of this is in general, btw) and less used to violence. On top of that, the amount of equipment a civilian would need to master to be even remotely effective against a modern military is far, far greater. More complex firearms, longer ranges, anti-tank and anti-drone measures, jamming and spotting technology… Plus all the tech knowledge needed to communicate and cooperate on safe channels, which is a task and a half in the modern era
Parties were also more militarized back then, right now no western leftist party has even an hint of the idea of a military command structure. Which would make waging a coherent campaign much more difficult.
I just can’t imagine any western government falling from a guerrilla war in which the national army gets defeated on the field. Other routes will need to be taken, i find the idea of trying to fight the government on the field extremely dangerous.
Excellent points, though take note, the goal of guerrilla warfare isn’t to defeat the enemy, but to drain his resources. Another aspect of this is the designed escalation of guerrilla warfare: No government would use a drone to take out five guys in the forest. Those guys are still at the local level, even if they plan to later on build up against the government. Quite simply the higher government wouldn’t know too much about it at first, and those 5 guys would just be dealing cops.
Now you do make note of only soldiers being prepped enough to fight a guerrilla war, true. But oppressed minorities are disproportionate servicemen. Now where are these minorities mainly located. The Southern and Southwestern US. Where are areas best suited for guerrilla campaigns? The Southern and Southwestern US. Where are the largest indigenous reservations? The Southwestern US. What does the Southwestern US have? A large mountainous border with Mexico. What areas will be affected more and more by Climate Change? The Southern and Southwestern US. If a protracted struggle were to happen, it would have to happen there.
Now I agree that for current goals, organized demonstrations and blockades will do. For now. Besides without that radical minority, what teeth do the masses have? Which is why I imagine that would be guerrillas start off as industrial saboteurs. Those types who care deeply about the environment to a radical extent most likely have the knowledge of the land. And, at least to the liberal view, these carbon partisans are attacking specific organs of land exploitation and not the state itself. WE know that the state will protect private property and is the whole point of the state, but if the goal isn’t necessarily an overthrow of the state and “just” dismantling regressive ecological exploitation systems perhaps the guerrillas wouldn’t be wiped off the Earth and instead the state bends its knees instead of provoking a revolution.
Instead of waiting for American class consciousness to rise from a change material conditions, the best way to get them off their asses is Climate Action because they can see it affecting them already and it’s detrimental and existential. Clearly the system needs to change, many Zoomers know that even tho they have no idea how they want change. Why worry of some gommunist famines if doing nothing to the systems leaves you with a pain 10x worse than any fascist propaganda could cook up. That is why we need Melons and no more electoralism from the libs.