Only around 6 / 1,000 shots in the premier league create XG higher than a penalty (so Arsenal had 3/4). And the majority of fouls that lead to a penalty have less than a 10% chance of leading to a goal (including way too many non-deliberate handballs)
Penalties have actually been getting easier with VAR ensuring keepers stay on their lines and the new rules stopping the keepers distracting the taker.
I think it would make the game fairer and more exiting if penalties weren’t an almost guaranteed goal. So I came up with some ideas to reduce the impact of penalties:
- Require the fouled player to take the penalty.
- Offer indirect free kicks for non-deliberate handballs.
- Prohibit stuttered run-ups, making the kicker’s approach more predictable for goalkeepers.
- Move the penalty spot back.
- Use VAR to penalise diving more harshly
Let me know if you agree that penalties are too hard and if so how we could change them?
I’ve also explored more ideas in a new video, consider giving it a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6elPY8ZvtI.
Penalties are supposed to discourage tactical fouls to prevent goals. We want them to almost never be worth it. The game is more exciting if attackers are allowed to finish the plays and score open play goals, unless the defenders can stop them by fair means.
Now the discussion about hand ball when there isn’t a clear chance is a tricky part. But I prefer rules to deal with that actual problem rather than making penalties harder to score.
Although penalties discourage tactical fouls, they encourage the attacker to look for contact and go down. Attackers often play for the foul and go down with little contact rather than looking for the finish.
That’s a small downside yes but the upside outweighs that… defenders also need to stay honest and not give unnecessary contact in the box
So many games are decided by dubious penalties. I wouldn’t say it’s a small downside
If you go the reverse way you’re going to be saying “so many games are decided by X cheap tactical foul in a clear goal scoring opp”
Agreed. Would rather the game be decided by a soft pen than defenders get away with tactical fouls in the box. It’s just the lesser of two evils. Obviously ideally it’s decided by neither but if I had to choose between being on the receiving end of simulation from an attacker or something like Barca vs Chelsea 2009 (I’m a Chelsea fan so that’s the first thing that popped into me head), I’m choosing the former. There has to be a stict punishment for denying a goalscoring opportunity. There’s no worse feeling in football than when you’re possibly about to score, the attacker fouls/handballs etc in the box and the defending team don’t end up conceding.