for me, it’s pretty confusing in quite a few instances, but, just to give an example: if the striker shoots and the keeper saves it, but the striker taps in the rebound, how is xG counted? is it counted twice or just once? or, what if neither shot goes in?
xG is simply the chance of the goal being converted by an AVERAGE player. The value doesn’t tell us anything else.
A player outperforming xG (over a long period) is better than average, underperforming is worse than average.
Harry Kane for example has outperformed xG in all but one season of his career.
Gabriel Jesus on the other hand has never hit his xG ever in his career.
Now we dont need xG to tell us Harry Kane is brilliant and the Jesus misses loads of shots but it’s a stat that “proves” the eye test