Well here I am currently watching the 2023 Guangzhou Autoshow on youtube and I am amazed at the quality of the evs at the show. I am also in awe how fast China is electrifying their auto fleet.
BYD surpassed Ford in total sales earlier this year and they only sold 500,000 car in 2019. BYD also said this: demolish the old legends
BYD, Xpeng, Nio, MG, Geely, GAC are all expanding rapidly into South America, Europe and South East Asia.
These companies are topping the sales charts in the South East Asian markets.
Kia Australia boss says Chinese car brands will be in top five shortly.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/chinese-car-brands-top-five-within-three-years/
I’m kind of concerned for our current auto brands dragging their feet.
China is killing it in volume, but I believe its based on a lot of smoke and mirrors and throwaway extremely cheap vehicles that would never pass crash safety tests in developed markets. Here is a field of over 10,000 BYD vehicles with license plates parked away remotely rotting with only 30 miles on the odometers and wrapped in plastic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SEfwoqKRU8
Even being on the optimistic side, I think Chinese brands would occupy similar market share as Korean ones.
Hope to see them enter the US market, specifically in the affordable EV segment to stir up some competition in that space
At least in the US, it will take quite a while for our consumers to accept a Chinese made vehicle, let alone EVs. We are a bit slow to adapt unless something earth shattering happens like $12 gas or a world war.
Better to just say that the US is pretty staunchly anti-Chinese, due to the competition for hegemony. Europe, SA, etc do not care so much as they are more globalized so things are more quick to catch on.
Yeah coz people in that country are always shitting on literally every car when the cars they’re seeing are not Japanese.
Nah, they’re already accepted. They’ll just sell them under familiar brand names at larger scales than they already do.
I’m looking forward to seeing how many more Chinese made vehicles are in the driveway at the in-laws on Thursday in addition to the Chinese-made Volvo and Buick that were there last year.
No. They have zero infra and zero brand recognition in the U.S.
You put a compelling product on the market and people will flock to it. Having the right product for the right price tends to override any prejudices real quick.
In Australia and NZ - nobody knew who the hell BYD were until about 2 years ago. Now, their compact crossover, the Atto 3, is the 2nd best selling EV behind the Model Y. For 2023 in NZ, the Atto 3 is the 7th best selling new vehicle overall (Model Y is #3). In Australia - the Model Y is also #3, with the Atto 3 at #22.
Not too culturally different from the US. I’m not suggesting they will overshadow the big 3 in their first few years on the US market – but I can see them rising up to Hyundai/Kia sales numbers pretty quick – probably stealing a lot of their sales from the Koreans.
The much higher tariffs (5.0% in Australia vs 26% in the US) and the way EV tax credit works makes Chinese cars way less competitive though which is probably much important than anything else.
That didnt stop Tesla from succeeding.
I said the same thing about them in Australia when they first started making inroads about 5 years ago.
Now they’ve completely dominated the ‘cheap disposable shitbox’ role that Hyundai, Mitsubishi and Nissan used to be kings of.
Not in America 🇺🇸🦅
Ignoring everything else; I’d expect at least two Chinese brands in the top 2 eventually as China develops based purely on population size. The last 200 years were basically an anomaly and China will probably reclaim it’s usual place as a major economic centre of gravity. Imo it already has to an extent
Besides that, I’m not surprised because the entire western automaker strategy for a long time in China was rather lazy. Because domestic brands were so weak, VW et al could upcharge incredible basic features that they had already developed
Naturally, that strategy couldn’t last forever. Heated seats aren’t exactly cutting edge tech. It was inevitable that Chinese OEMs would eventually develop things like that and rather than proactively fight that many foreign OEMs only reacted once it was too late
Dominate by 2030? No chance. Considering 2024 models are already out, it’d be at least 2025 at the earliest before some of these would be hitting the US - and in Mexico, where Chinese vehicles seem to be taking off, they still only represent something like 8% of the market after 3-4 years.
you do realize the “export rise” of chinese cars that people talk about recently are all due to their cars going to the russian market right? As Western automakers pull out of that fascist country, chinese filled in the gap. Afterall, Russia is still a relatively large market due to its 100million+ population.
In China perhaps.
Not in the US, they’d have to pass the safety regulations first. Something they have horrifically failed every time they’ve attempted to enter the market.
Then there’s the stigma of being Chinese, most Americans are resistant to buying chinese products to varying degrees and for various reasons (in the rare situation they have a choice).
Their EV’s are an entirely different story than their jalopy internal combustions cars. The ones they have brought over to Europe have passed their safety regulations with flying colors.
Reliability. #1 question to overcome for all Chinese car manufacturers .
Doesn’t BYD make underwear?
Xpeng’s a digital design studio, right?
Nio’s that stuff you add to water to make it taste like cherries, right?
MG made cars my grandfather wanted… in 1955.
Geely’s a character in the new Disney movie, yeah?
GAC is the sound of retching, or a toy marketed to kids in the early ‘90s.
How long did it take for Hyundai and Kia to achieve anything worthwhile in the States? 30 years?
How’s Chinese phone market penetration doing?
Do any of these brands use tech by Huawei or ZTE?
Is China even going to allow integration of RoW tech with Chinese cars?
If our cars already read our texts and know our contacts, do Americans really want that information going to the Chinese government?
How can an industry already hurting for good technicians train and provide experience to technicians in the next seven years?
How can an industry already hurting in terms of supply chain logistics absorb several new brands?
No.
It makes a lot of sense from a geopolitical point of view.
Because of where China is positioned in the world and the natural resources available (or not available, so to speak) to it on its own soil, they are very dependent on imports of all kinds, especially energy. China has been adopting renewables at a breakneck pace compared to the rest of the world, but it’s not out of some altruistic mission to be carbon free (well, not entirely at least) - it’s so that the country will not self-destruct if an adversary blocks critical sea lanes. If your country runs on electric and you don’t have to rely (as much) on oil and gas coming from thousands of miles away then you are much more secure.
It’s also a powerful way to help build up domestic consumption. China has no shortage of mid-level manufacturing capacity to build out the components needed for EV’s. This allows domestic firms to purchase parts and materials from other domestic firms - keeping it in the family, so to speak. China’s economy has been dependent on massive infrastructure spending for the better part of 3 decades and it’s lead to crazy distortions in the real estate market with ghost cities and the like. The Belt and Road Initiative was largely a way to find more work for China’s construction industry, but it stalled out for a variety of reasons. A big national electrification push might be another project to keep the economy going while providing some meaningful benefits to the country.
I also see it as a way to bypass the preference that the Chinese market has often had for foreign cars. No one wants a BYD if they can afford a BMW. But going all-in on EV can allow a Chinese brand to make the argument that they are leap-frogging past the traditional foreign heavyweights by being faster at building the products of the future.
Can’t they do that by selling exclusively in China?