• JelloSquirrel@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    There’s going to be a crossover point where the cut over from gaming chips used for AI accelerators will be worse than what china can build domestically.

    • chocolateboomslang@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      Of course, but they’ve been working on computer components for years now and are still way behind, so I don’t think it will happen very soon.

      • JelloSquirrel@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        These gaming cards are often crippled at both the software (fixable) and hardware level when it comes to compute capabilities. If the gaming card is 1/4th or 1/32 or 1/256 as good as an actual compute card, how long before it’s better to use something home built? At a certain point, even normal amd and Intel cpus will be faster.

        This applies more to double precision floating point (useful for nuclear simulations), but the ML hardware on gaming cards is crippled compared to the compute cards regardless.

        • trees_away@alien.topB
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          1 year ago

          I don’t think you know what you’re talking about. 4090s are just as fast at training as an A100. Faster at inference in some cases. They just don’t have as much VRAM. (24gb for 4090 vs 40gb/80gb for A100)

        • chocolateboomslang@alien.topB
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          1 year ago

          Just take a look at how bad their domestically produced cpu is and you might be less concerned.

          Saying CPUs will eventually be faster makes it sound like you might not understand why they want GPUs in the first place. If the CPUs get that good don’t you think they will also be banned?

          • JelloSquirrel@alien.topB
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            1 year ago

            If you cut down a GPU enough, the CPU doesn’t become good, the GPU becomes bad.

            Double precision fp (yes a different metric but the main one super computers are concerned about) performance of Nvidia 4080 is 761.52GFlops. Ryzen 9 7950x is about 256GFlops, so on that one metric, it’s not like the GPUs are orders of magnitude behind. At a certain point, using a cut down gaming card won’t make sense.

      • JHarbinger@alien.top
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        1 year ago

        Yes that point is potentially 15-20 years from now which is an absolute eternity in terms of AI and most other technologies

    • Randommaggy@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      Given their track record and recent trajectory i’d place that point at 15 years after the death of Xi at the earliest.

      Their economy is beyond FUBAR, the brain drain is extreme and the culture is counter productive for actual advances(996 is lunacy)

      They can’t make a chip that’s 100th as advanced as a modern GPU which works correctly using equipment that’s no longer available to them after spending that went 95% into a corruption black hole.

          • Lechowski@alien.topB
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            1 year ago

            Chips in warfare are shitty embedded processors that handle real time sensors, not 500W heaters like the 4090.

            They just don’t want China to be competitive in the AI market. It has happened before with the Marshall Plan and it will happen in the future.

              • Todesfaelle@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                Even before that there was the “Iraqi super computer” myth where it was believed Saddam was hoarding thousands of PS2s to circumvent sanctions on computer hardware since it could be imported as a toy for children.

                Strap a dozen PS2s together and you have a missile guidance system or something to that effect.

                It gained a lot of traction in the US and I’m pretty sure Sony released a statement absolving themselves of any wrong doings after the consoles were purchased.

                Wild time.

              • TheTjalian@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                Man it’s absolutely wild how the CELL processor went from the next big thing to vanishing everywhere in the space of 5 years.

                Fun fact about the PS3: They originally had the intention to use a second CELL processor for dedicated graphics, until they realised it was too costly and also didn’t work too well as a graphics chip. This is the reason why they shoehorned a modified Nvidia 6700 in there. This is speculation, but it’s also probably why they went with dedicated memory for the CPU and the GPU rather than unified memory like the Xbox 360 did.

            • nullmove@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              And with the way RISC-V is shaping up, China could arguable have state of the art embedded processors within 5 years anyway.

              • i_eat_da_poops@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                I don’t know why you got bombed but people seem to heavily disregard the fact that China is upcoming for a reason.

                They are super populated meaning more manpower for lower wages, in addition, they have a very strict education system and the student also take it very seriously too. So now add the two together and you will see that they are actually progressing at a rate that’s compounded in comparison to the Western hemisphere.

                Provided that they’re currently still behind, this however is not set in stone.

                I won’t try to guess and say they will overtake the states any time soon but the chances of this happening is far greater than people would like to believe.

                • nullmove@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  Non-technical sub coupled with anti-China mindset. The thing about RISC-V is that its success doesn’t even depend on China, it’s open source hardware and a bunch of other nations and many western companies are also invested in it, making its success more or less a question of timeline.

            • watduhdamhell@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              Correct. And that’s good. We don’t want China to win the race for AI, because to win AI is to win the world.

            • Subject_Gene2@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              Bruh are you actually serious? How do you think a naturally unstable fighter (meaning you can’t take your hands off the stick lick a regular plane and it will self correct) is able to be flown? Fly by wire and sensor fusion/then generating that information on screen, while being connected to all other f35s/some lesser fighters (and ai controlled side drone wingmen) takes a huge amount of processing power. Imagine the f35s see through aircraft helmet? You’re right, it probably runs on a 1080ti

            • JaggedMetalOs@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              Supercomputing has a lot of military applications behind the scenes as well - simulation (especially for stuff like nukes that can’t easily be tested due to test ban treaties), sigint, encryption cracking, and obviously AI has a lot of potential uses as well.

          • saagars147@alien.topB
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            1 year ago

            But aren’t the chips made in Taiwan? Don’t imagine it’s too hard for China to get their hands on them

          • ilyich_commies@alien.topB
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            1 year ago

            The irony here is that blocking China from importing certain chips will do little except pressure them even more to develop their own chip manufacturing industry, which is already growing fast

            • BoosGonnaBoo@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              Have you seen the domestic chinese chips?For an example,the Moore Threads GPUs are jokes,worse than Pascal.

              Cutting China off will buy us a lot of time.

            • aboycandream@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              which is already growing fast

              is it though? they’re kind of inept, their biggest successes with SMIC had disastrous yields

            • worotan@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              So it’s better to give people we don’t trust what they haven’t got, because otherwise they’ll have to work out how to make them?

              You’re demonstrating why neoliberal commercial thinking isn’t what we need to build a safer and better future.

            • Svyatoy_Medved@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              That’s fine. Developing a domestic chip manufacturing base is expensive and time consuming, so the US will have a major competitive advantage for the next few years. China may also be incapable of matching US and Taiwanese chip quality, which imposes additional costs. The goal isn’t “make sure China never builds a computer,” it’s just “make sure Chinese computers are more expensive so everyone buys American.”

              • ilyich_commies@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                That will still never work though, Chinese manufacturing blows American out of the water. They will surpass us very soon unless America fully blocks the import of their chips, just like we did with their electric cars, which are vastly superior to ours.

                • aboycandream@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  That will still never work though, Chinese manufacturing blows American out of the water. They will surpass us very soon unless

                  Why do people just go on the internet and lie

                • Svyatoy_Medved@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  I mean, even if you are right that Chinese manufacturing is superior, which is improbable, it still isn’t great for China. If it was cheaper and faster for them to develop domestic manufacturing, then it would have happened already. So while they build up, they will be non competitive with other manufacturers, even if they do have a strong product in a few years. Which again, is unlikely.

                • notagoodscientist@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  You should compare legit European/American ICs with their Chinese clones which they fakely label as the other ICs, for some things people don’t notice, but something a lot of people do notice is they’re extraordinarily shit

            • UsmcFatManBear@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              They won’t grow that fast due to their tech companies pretty much only hiring Chinese citizens to work for them. They are also paramilitary at this point since the companies are owned by the government.

              The only way they can progress is going to be stealing tech and info from other countries. They mostly do this by sending Chinese military operatives to other countries as students or tech workers.

              The reason Nato countries are so much faster at developing tech is because they import brain power. You go to a tech company in the US and you will see researchers from every country working on projects.

              • ilyich_commies@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                Their chip capacity hasn’t grown cause they’ve always been able to buy chips. They can’t anymore, so the incentive to develop that tech is higher than ever. And they have plenty of manpower

            • TheTexasCowboy@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              It won’t, ASML can’t export newer technology to China. If China can make its own lithography equipment for chips, then it’s all over. They haven’t yet. Plus ASML is the only in its field.

              • ilyich_commies@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                Yes. They are so far behind cause they’ve always been able to just buy chips for far less money than making them. Now we have taken away their ability to buy chips, and they have no choice but to learn to make them or get left behind. They have made it extremely clear that they have chosen the former.

            • Justneedtacos@alien.topB
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              1 year ago

              China’s ambitions in re-acquiring Taiwan aren’t just political. There is also potentially huge economic gains there.

              • Svyatoy_Medved@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                There are not. Chip manufacturing is extraordinarily delicate. You need incredibly precise machinery to operate in a vacuum with highly skilled workers. All three of these things react poorly to bombs.

                If a Chinese capture of Taiwan is strongly opposed by just the Taiwanese, not even the Americans, then it will take just as long to reactivate TSMC as it would to build a new Chinese manufacturing base from scratch. If not longer, given risks of insurgents, UXO, and devastated infrastructure.

              • VikingBorealis@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                How. The moment they try and get close to a what is essentially an impossible landfall. The foundries to boom. It’s part of the defense strategy.

                • dotjzzz@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  And losing TSMC will have little impact to China in the coming years because the US already cut them off.

                  China has nothing to lose so why let you enjoy your AI chips?

              • sargonas@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                Dunno, I recall reading some detailed report about a “gentleman’s agreement” the US military has with Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing companies, where if China is on the verge of taking the island, we would tactically bomb all foundries immediately. In return, the US will foot the bill to rebuild their companies manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere immediately after.

                • RoboTronPrime@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  Then there’s the CHIPS Act which included, among other things, a ton of money invested into Intel to basically re-shore US competitiveness in semiconductors. It’s clearly a strategic vulnerability for so much of the worldwide capacity to be concentrated in this little island way closer to global rivals than in domestic territory.

                • dotjzzz@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  And you think losing TSMC isn’t a benefit to China because China also have equal access?

                  rebuild their companies manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere immediately after.

                  How is Arizona going? Well? Production in 3 months? 6 months?

              • rubywpnmaster@alien.topB
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                1 year ago

                China would be a dead state if they tried. The problem would be that the Chinese military is actually too weak to invade Taiwan. They could send a LOT of boats, yes. And the antiship missiles we’ve fed to Taiwan, and those they have produced would decimate that fleet and kill hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers. They’d be dealing with revolution at home, have a crippled navy, and be cut off from the international trade system as every approaching vessel is targetd from hundreds of miles away.

                Also, all those mega structures? The massive infrastructure expansion, the pipelines to Russia? Yeah those are nice targets. And all perfectly valid to destroy in a defensive war against an aggressor.

                Yes, Taiwan can reach Beijing with missiles powerful enough to level skyscrapers and factories alike.

                • ravenhawk10@alien.topB
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                  1 year ago

                  Taiwans Defence ministers talk about surviving more than two weeks and you talk about winning. Can’t tell if you’ve fallen for DPP brainrot or Chiang Kai Sheks retake the mainland propaganda.

              • Tobacco_Bhaji@alien.topB
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                1 year ago
                1. It’s not ‘re-acquiring’ Taiwan.
                2. Controlling the island would do absolutely zero for them other than greatly improve their coastal defense and shipping security.
                3. That shipping security is the real reason they want the island.
    • J0n__Snow@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      IMO the title is total bullshit. They even write in the first paragraph that AI cards incl the 4090 are banned.

      The reason for dismantling the cards is that they can make significantly smaller AI accelerators with the chips and the RAM.

      • VIPTicketToHell@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        Yup and these have been bought in very large quantities before the ban takes into effect. Nvidia is also shipping tons to China per the article before the ban.

        • berogg@alien.topB
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          1 year ago

          I wonder if that has anything to do with the 4090 shortage tech sites and channels were talking about a couple weeks ago? They were speculating because of a 4080Ti release, but maybe it’s this?

      • -6h0st-@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        Well it’s possible they buy from local market - gamers - offering good price. They can’t source AI cards like this. Not to mention it’s easier to source 4090 cards through unauthorized channels rather than AI card that’s not easily obtainable by general public.

    • r2k-in-the-vortex@alien.top
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      1 year ago

      Yes, it is. But as you might imagine, an export ban on a consumer item is hardly watertight. Anyone can buy one and simply walk over the border. Who is there to stop that?

      That’s fine. All other export controls leak too. Export control in the end is just an extra barrier you force a country to jump over and that extra cost causes them to be uncompeditive on global market. They will still be plenty compeditive on local market with their parallel imported consumer cards.

      • AnIdeaMan@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        Correct but they need thousands if not tens of thousands of cards. Shipping a few im suitcases isn’t going cut it.

        • r2k-in-the-vortex@alien.top
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          1 year ago

          Give it enough money and the thousands of suitcases are going to organize themselves. Don’t underestimate how massive sneakernets can get, bulk of all baby formula consumed in China has been supplied like this, because nobody in China trusts to buy baby formula from local Chinese businessmen after the 2008 scandal.

      • upbeatchief@alien.top
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        1 year ago

        It securing the quantity need that would make this ban hurt, this ban can be effective if it kills Chinese enterprise ability for getting enough cards in a short enough time. And this is not even with considering middle men cost, I am betting on middle men making it shipping a card will cost the same as the card itself, we have seen this during the crypto boom.

        The us government is trying to kill Chinese ability to compete economically. Not the ability to compete outright.

        • agitatedprisoner@alien.topB
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          1 year ago

          It’s not about obstructing China economically it’s about preserving military supremacy so long as China is regarded as a threat to the international order. As long as China would insist on ruling Taiwan over the objections of the democratically elected Taiwanese government that means China is seeking to export authoritarian rule. That’s contrary to the advancement of democracy around the globe. China’s treatment of Hong Kong and Uighurs further evidences China’s antidemocratic tendencies. The reason to obstruct China from getting cutting edge AI and microchips is the same as the reason to obstruct Nazi Germany from enriching uranium, it’s not otherwise about the economics of it.

    • iprocrastina@alien.topB
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      1 year ago

      You gotta admit it’s a pretty neat brag when 4090 owners can legitimately say their gaming GPU is so powerful its a banned export under supercomputing technology controls.

      • ArseBurner@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        Remember when the PS3 was banned? I thought it was a joke. And then the airforce made a supercomputer out of a cluster of PS3s…

  • yaykaboom@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    Gaming in 1980’s : you are just a fun hobby to waste time

    Gaming in 2020’s : your chips power AI, i must acquire them

  • nezeta@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    I don’t think the ban ultimately works. Russia seems to import tons of iPhone via other countries. If Nvidia is aware of a big rise in sales in countries like Hong Kong, they will overlook it or rather, Nvidia is apparently developing an alternative of A800 for the Chinese market.

    Not saying it’s wrong. Nvidia is a private company and the ban is a political matter.

  • Maki85@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    I’m so freaking tired of gamers getting screwed over on GPU prices over stuff like this. Cant get a break! As soon as prices drop back down better grab one fast.